ETF and stock technical analysis: emerging markets ETFs jump on Brazil, the Nasdaq ETF sets another record and Mediobanca drops 5.14% in Milan

An ETF is a listed basket: one order buys a whole index, a sector or a region, at the price set on the exchange during the session. That makes baskets the quickest way to see where money moved, and on Monday it moved towards emerging markets.

VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, rose 1.76%; SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, 1.94%, SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, 1.75% and IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, 1.48%. Our model is on buy on all four, since 13 April on the first two and since 17 August on the others, and the push came from Brazil, where the market posted what press reports call its widest gain in more than six years. The move is over three times the typical daily range of these funds, and it comes from a single country. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, added 0.43%.

Among US sectors the leaders were last week's laggards. XLB, Materials Select Sector SPDR, the US materials ETF, gained 1.31% and XLC, Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, 1.17%. XLE, Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, rose 1.00% and is on buy at 10.00%, while VDE, Vanguard Energy, turned to sell at Friday's close. In Europe EXV6, iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS, the European basic resources ETF, added 1.51%, EXV1, iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, 1.33% and EXH1, iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, 1.11%. The first two carry a sell signal born on Friday, and the bounce did not bring them back above their weekly level. EXH4, iShares STOXX Europe 600 Industrial Goods & Services UCITS, the European industrials ETF, was the only one lower, down 0.78% on the weight of a single French stock. EXV3, iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF and this week's new buy signal, added 0.23%.

US technology is still the only sector up on the month. XLK, Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gained 0.56%, VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, 0.69%, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, 0.70% and QDVE, iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, its European UCITS counterpart, 0.98%: the model has been on buy on all four since 10 August, with gains between 5.42% and 9.34%. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, was flat at 0.10% in a session that split the group. MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, rose 1.25% and is up 9.85%.

On the sell side the model's short remains in profit on GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, down 0.16% on Monday and up 3.52% since the signal of 21 September, on XLU, Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, at 8.35%, on XLRE, Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, at 7.42% and on XLF, Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, at 3.54%. XLV, Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, is on buy at 11.98%. Readers who want the full ETF technical analysis for every fund we follow, basket by basket, will find it on our dedicated Market Pulse page.

ETFs on the major indices, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the broad baskets, the ones most investors actually hold.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been on buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, is up 14.04% and sits just over half a point below its record, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 14.08% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 14.13%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, on buy since 3 August, are up 1.09% and 2.21%. On the total market the signal has been on sell since 14 September, and the six ETFs in the family rose between 0.63% and 0.74% on Monday, leaving them about a point and a half above the short's entry price: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets ETFs outside the United States. The five funds that turned to sell on Friday barely moved: VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, was unchanged, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, and VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, the Vanguard international stock ETF, gained half a point because they also hold emerging markets, and SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity, were flat. Still on sell since 14 September are VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, at 2.19%, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets. On buy are IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, at 5.22%, and VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, at 10.44%.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been on sell since 8 September and the short remains in profit: 1.37%, 2.79% and 0.63%.

The first round of Brazil's presidential election put the opposition candidate about two points ahead of the incumbent, an outcome the polls had not anticipated, and sent the contest to a run-off on 25 October. According to press reports the São Paulo index closed at a record after its widest gain in more than six years, and the currency strengthened by over 4% against the dollar.

In our universe the banks led. Bradesco stockLong rose 15.03% on 7.3 times its normal volume and closed near the session high; ItaúsaLong gained 11.52%, Banco do Brasil stockLong 11.00% and Itaú Unibanco stockLong 10.37%. Petrobras stockLong added 6.68% in São Paulo and 11.50% on its New York line PBRLong, where the currency recovery comes on top of the share move. Outside financials EcoRodoviasLong rose 24.67%, CosanLong 23.79%, LocalizaLong 20.68%, CyrelaLong 18.40%, EvenLong 15.97%, SabespLong 11.58%, MRVLong 11.37% and HyperaLong 7.11%.

Two exceptions help to read the move. ValeShort closed down 0.97%: for an iron ore exporter the price is set in China, shut for holidays until 8 October, and the vote matters little. CemigLong rose 5.00% on 3.8 times its normal volume, yet closed near its session low. In New York MercadoLibreShort gained 9.67%.

On Wall Street the data point of the day was the September services index: 54.9 against 55.0 expected according to press reports, with the prices-paid component at 74.0, a four-year high. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.70% and the implied probability of another rate rise at the end of October moved back up to 22%. Equities looked elsewhere. Nvidia stockLong rose 2.11% to a new all-time high without any company news, Tesla stockLong 2.20%, Broadcom stockShort 2.08%, Meta stockLong 1.90% and Microsoft stockLong 1.48%. For anyone tracking Nvidia stocks and the other mega caps, these five names did most of the index's work.

The rest of the semiconductor stocks went separate ways. Intel stockLong lost 2.63% after the founder of a large electric-vehicle group said his chip venture is in talks with TSMCLong, which rose 2.75%; QualcommLong fell 2.21%, ArmLong 1.49%, Micron stockLong 1.02% and AMDLong 0.32%. Western DigitalShort recovered 6.34% after Friday's slide. Among Chinese internet names AlibabaShort gained 4.68% after an analyst meeting pointed to narrowing losses in quick commerce, BaiduShort 3.17% and JD.comShort 2.25%. AppLovinShort rose 5.13%.

In health care the news came from a company we do not cover: an experimental pneumococcal vaccine met every primary goal in a pivotal study, with results equal to or better than the two products now on the market. Merck stockLong lost 3.30% and PfizerLong 1.40%; Bristol-Myers SquibbShort fell 3.83%. AbbVieLong, up 1.12%, won approval for a Parkinson's drug, and Eli LillyShort, flat, for a once-weekly insulin pen. In biotech NovavaxLong jumped 20.08%, RecursionLong 16.02% and ModernaLong 6.95%. Among financials VisaShort rose 2.51% and Bank of America stockShort 0.47%, a week ahead of results.

The Milan market opened the week higher, with the FTSE MIB ETF up 0.93% and the banking contest still at the centre. After Intesa SanpaoloShort on Saturday raised the cash part of its offer for Monte dei PaschiLong by 0.25 euros per share, on Monday press reports said the Siena bank's largest shareholder committed to tender its entire 17.6% stake. The market priced the news name by name. Mediobanca stockLong lost 5.14%, the widest move on the list: it is the company left with the fewest options as the contest narrows. Unipol stockShort rose 3.99%, read as an indirect beneficiary, BPER stockShort 2.33%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 1.55%, UniCredit stockShort 1.20%, Generali stockShort 1.16%, Monte dei Paschi 0.80% and Banco BPM stockShort 0.30%. For readers following Mediobanca stocks and Unipol stocks, the two moves are opposite sides of the same news. The decisive date remains the shareholders' meeting of 29 October.

The second engine was oil. Tenaris stockLong gained 5.25%, more than five times its typical daily range, SaipemShort 3.08% and Eni stockLong 0.91%. Also higher were Fincantieri stockShort, up 4.66%, AmplifonShort, 4.59%, AvioShort, 3.29%, Stellantis stockShort, 2.63%, Leonardo stockShort, 1.92%, and STMicroelectronics stockLong, 1.01%.

Utilities fell as yields rose: ItalgasShort down 1.53%, SnamShort 1.35%, HeraShort 1.08% and Enel stockShort 0.56%. Telecom Italia stockShort gave up a further 2.36%, LottomaticaLong 1.85%, Prysmian stockShort 1.35% and Ferrari stockLong 0.67%. The FTSE MIB ETF traded 4.4 times its normal volume: it is a thinly traded instrument, where a single block is enough to produce that figure.

In Europe the session was French, for two separate reasons. The first is fiscal risk: the budget stalemate kept the spread between French and German government bonds wide and pushed the euro to a seventeen-month low, while Spain called an early election for 29 November. The second is corporate. Schneider Electric stockShort lost 9.97%, on 3.7 times its normal volume and with a close near the low, after the group agreed to buy a US industrial software company for 205 dollars per share in cash: an enterprise value of 23.7 billion dollars, a premium above 40%, the largest acquisition in its history, funded with new debt and a capital increase. Société GénéraleShort, one of the banks underwriting the financing, closed down 0.47%.

Elsewhere on the French list DanoneShort lost 2.30%, Saint-GobainShort 1.46%, SanofiShort 1.16%, HermèsShort 1.04%, VinciShort 0.61% and KeringShort 0.50%; against the trend, Dassault SystèmesShort rose 3.73%, ThalesShort 1.84% and TotalEnergiesLong 1.80%.

In Germany Infineon stockShort fell 1.81% after selling a memory business to a Taiwanese group for 1.12 billion dollars; Bayer stockShort lost 2.18% and adidasShort 1.21%. BASF stockShort rose 0.63%: according to press reports a first offer of about 10.3 billion euros for a German chemicals group was rejected as too low. RheinmetallShort gained 2.43%, VolkswagenShort 1.57%, Mercedes-BenzShort 1.20% and SAPLong 0.61%. In London copper supported the miners after a strike at the world's largest mine was suspended: Anglo AmericanLong up 2.03%, Rio TintoShort 1.80% and GlencoreShort 1.41%. HSBCShort added 1.16% and ShellLong 0.97%, while GSKShort lost 1.15% and AstraZenecaShort 0.89%.

On Monday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort gained 0.93%, the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.27% and the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort 0.09%, while the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort lost 0.90%. All four remain below their weekly sell signal, with the price 2.82% under the level in Paris, 2.60% in Milan, 2.42% in Frankfurt and 2.11% in London, and all four have the daily signal on sell.

Milan moved back inside its lower Bollinger band after two sessions outside it and closed at the session high, just over half a point below the level that would turn the daily signal back to buy. The model's short, born on 31 August, is worth 2.48%; Paris, on sell since 24 August, 6.51%, London 1.39% and Frankfurt 0.22%.

The 9 buy signals born on Friday 2 October have had their first session, and all nine still have the daily signal on buy. Eight moved little: Astera LabsLong up 3.43%, STMicroelectronicsLong 1.01% in Milan and 0.73% on its New York line STMLong, Palo Alto NetworksLong 0.87%, Applied MaterialsLong 0.41%, Texas InstrumentsLong 0.37% and the European technology ETF EXV3Long 0.23%. The ninth is Brazil's CosanLong: up 23.79% in a day, on 5.6 times its normal volume and with a close near the high.

From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what has changed since Monday's table. Today there is one change: CarnivalLong slipped below its entry price. The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Eleven companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Wednesday 7 October brings Applied DigitalShort, Thursday 8 PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort, and Friday 9 Delta Air LinesShort. The season proper starts on Tuesday 13 with JPMorganShort, Goldman SachsShort, CitigroupShort and Wells FargoShort, together with Johnson & JohnsonLong and UnitedHealthShort.

Wednesday 7 October

Applied Digital Short

Thursday 8 October

PepsiCo Short

Tesco Long

Tilray Brands Short

Friday 9 October

Delta Air Lines Short

Tuesday 13 October

JPMorgan Chase Short

Goldman Sachs Short

Citigroup Short

Wells Fargo Short

Johnson & Johnson Long

UnitedHealth Short

QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, gained 0.88% and set its second all-time high in two sessions, closing above Friday's record and above its wait zone. Both horizons are on buy, with the price 1.72% above the daily level and 3.57% above the weekly one. The one thing out of tune is volume, the lowest since 2 September. SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, gained 0.67% and turned its daily signal back to buy after four sessions on sell: the price left its wait zone through the top and sits 0.58% below its record, 2.06% above the weekly level.

On targets the two baskets are in opposite phases. SPY has already passed all three scale-out windows and is managed on the weekly Reversal Point, which stands well above the entry price. QQQ is in its eighth week, 3.44% above its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead.