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In Milan Fincantieri gains 6.89% and Amplifon 6.81% while STMicroelectronics loses 3.02%; the FTSE MIB ETF rises 0.87%. ETF technical analysis: the European telecoms ETF drops 2.93% after the SpaceX deal, the US health care ETF gains 1.58%. Verizon down 10.14%, Moderna up 14.21%.

· 35 min read
ETF and stock technical analysis: the European telecoms ETF falls 2.93%, Verizon stock drops 10.14% after the SpaceX deal, Moderna stock gains 14.21% and Fincantieri stock 6.89% in Milan
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Economic Observatory · The session

ETF and stock technical analysis: the European telecoms ETF falls 2.93%, Verizon stock drops 10.14% after the SpaceX deal, Moderna stock gains 14.21% and Fincantieri stock 6.89% in Milan

10 October 2026 AiTrading67 · Trade Desk Observatory Markets
▶ The desk on video. Every day the session in a minute and a half: the stocks in the news with the signals of our model, and every week the market recap. Watch the playlist on YouTube

On Friday 9 October the indices closed higher, and a good deal more happened beneath the surface: ETFs make it visible. The S&P 500 ETF SPY rose 0.60% and ended the week within reach of its all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ added 0.49%. In the same session the US communication services ETF XLC lost 1.51% and the European telecoms ETF EXV2 2.93%, after SpaceX announced it was buying radio spectrum to move into mobile telephony. On the other side, the US health care ETF XLV gained 1.58%, the European basic resources ETF EXV6 3.19% and the gold ETF GLD 1.57%. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB rose 0.87%: the Milan market bounced with the rest of Europe after two sessions of selling.

In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan, Fincantieri stock gained 6.89% and Amplifon stock 6.81%, with Saipem stock up 3.72% and UniCredit stock up 1.06%; STMicroelectronics stock lost 3.02% and Telecom Italia stock 1.28%. On Wall Street AT&T stock fell 10.82% and Verizon stock 10.14%, while Moderna stock climbed 14.21%, Palantir stock 5.17%, Amazon stock 3.29% and Microsoft stock 2.38%; Apple stock slipped 1.11%. In Frankfurt Deutsche Telekom stock dropped 7.94% and SAP stock rose 3.70%.

Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names: short Verizon, 11.53% in profit, Deutsche Telekom, 8.52%, Telecom Italia, 23.31%, and the European telecoms ETF EXV2; long software through Snowflake, Zscaler, Palantir, 21.53% in profit, and Microsoft, 15.14%; long health care through Moderna, 55.03% in profit, and the XLV ETF, 14.28%; long SAP, 21.42% in profit. The weekly close confirmed new buy signals on Cisco, Constellation Energy, Amplifon and Saipem, and new sell signals on AT&T, Monte dei Paschi, Mediobanca and Ferrari. On the four European indices the model remains on sell, through the FTSE MIB, DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 ETFs, and on buy on the two US ETFs, SPY on the S&P 500 and QQQ on the Nasdaq 100.

The news that moved our instruments
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INSTRUMENTS
The index rises while one sector loses a point and a half

ETF technical analysis: the communication services ETF and the European telecoms ETF fall after the SpaceX announcement, the health care ETF and the gold ETF rise, the S&P 500 ETF closes near its record

An ETF is a fund that trades on an exchange like a share and holds a whole basket: an index, a sector, a commodity. On Friday it showed what the index was hiding: the S&P 500 rose while one of its eleven sectors lost a point and a half on a single piece of news.

That sector was communication services. XLC, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, the US communication services ETF, lost 1.51% and closed at its session low, dragged down by the two large phone carriers. The model's long, opened on 13 July, is back just below its entry price and keeps a margin of 1.03% over the weekly level. In Europe EXV2, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS, the European telecoms ETF, fell 2.93%: there the model has been on sell since 28 September and the short is now 2.94% in profit.

Almost everything else in the US market rose. XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, gained 1.58%, and the long of 26 May is 14.28% in profit. XLRE, the real estate ETF, rose 1.86% and turned its daily signal back to buy, XLY on consumer discretionary 1.02%, XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, 0.92%, XLU, the utilities ETF, 0.83%, XLI on industrials 0.50% and XLB on materials 0.32%; XLP, the consumer staples ETF, closed unchanged. On all of these the model's weekly signal is sell: the rebounds brought prices up against their levels without turning them. Technology lagged the market: XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, rose 0.51%, VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, 0.57%, and FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, 0.53%, all on buy since 10 August and in profit. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, lost another 0.69%, closing near its session low, and is 2.32% below its entry with a margin of 5.74% over the weekly level. MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, added 1.01% and is 10.25% in profit; QDVE, the European-listed fund on S&P 500 technology, slipped 1.12% and remains 8.35% ahead. Energy paused after a strong week: XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, eased 0.25% with the long 12.83% in profit, and VDE, Vanguard Energy, the Vanguard energy ETF, 0.27%.

In Europe the rebound was broad. EXV6, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS, the European basic resources ETF, gained 3.19% with metals and turned its daily signal back to buy; EXH4, the European industrials ETF, rose 1.76%, EXV4, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS, the European health care ETF, 1.65%, EXHG, the European autos ETF, 1.47%, EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, 0.66%, and EXH9, the European utilities ETF, 0.60%. The model is on sell on all six: the shorts on industrials, health care, autos, banks and utilities remain in profit, the one on basic resources shows a small loss. Still on buy are EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, up 0.87% on the day and 7.47% since the signal, and EXV3, the European technology ETF, up 0.72%. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS, the FTSE MIB ETF, rose 0.87%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, gained 1.57% and turned its daily signal back to buy; the weekly short of 21 September is still 2.24% in profit. The ETF technical analysis for every basket we follow, one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.

Broad index ETFs, family by family. Alongside sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the large baskets, the ones that end up in savings plans and long-term portfolios. This week the news came from there.

US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, rose 0.60% and is 14.59% above the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are 14.61% and 14.50% ahead. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, on buy since 3 August, are 1.57% and 2.42% in profit. On the total market, the weekly close turned back to buy two funds that had been on sell since 14 September: IWV, iShares Russell 3000, which on Friday traded more than three times its normal volume and closed near its session high, and IWB, iShares Russell 1000. The other four, VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, and SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, remain on sell with the price now sitting on its level: the next weekly close will settle it. IWM, iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, rose 0.49%, and the model's short is 5.77% in profit.

Developed markets ETFs outside the United States. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, rose 0.70%, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, 0.78%, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, 0.86%, SCHF, Schwab International Equity, 0.66% and SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, 0.64%. On all five the sell signal of 28 September remains slightly in profit. IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, was the last of these international funds still on buy: Friday's close confirmed the sell signal there too. On sell since 14 September are VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, 2.47% in profit, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, 1.50%, and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, 1.53%. Still on buy is VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF, 10.24% ahead since 6 April, with a margin of 1.24% over its weekly level.

Emerging markets and Japan ETFs. Emerging markets recovered more than a point: VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, up 1.12%, SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, up 1.16%, SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, up 1.32%, and IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, up 1.12%. On Thursday two of the four had closed below their weekly level; on Friday all of them finished back above it, and the buy signal survived the weekly candle. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, rose 0.56% and sits just below its entry price, with a margin of 3.72%.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, rose 0.70%, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, 0.53% and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, 0.51%. They have been on sell since 8 September: VIG and DGRO keep a marginal profit, while the short on USMV shows a small loss.

How I read itSomething shifted in the US family this week. Until last Friday our model was on buy on the funds holding the largest companies and on sell on every total-market fund: the rally lived at the top of the market. With the close of 9 October two broad funds turned back to buy and the other four reached their level. It is the first sign in a month that the advance is broadening beneath the big names. Outside the United States the picture is the reverse: the last international developed-markets fund still on buy has turned to sell, and Europe ended the week lower despite Friday's bounce. On telecoms, risk management offers a simple lesson: with the two US carriers held inside a broad ETF the loss was a few hundredths of a point, inside the sector ETF a point and a half, and in the single stock 10%. US health care, on buy since May, is 14.28% in profit and was the sector where the model worked best on the day.
US communication services ETF long (G / P) · European telecoms ETF short (G / P) · US health care ETF long (G / P) · US real estate ETF short (G / P) · US consumer discretionary ETF short (G / P) · US financials ETF short (G / P) · US utilities ETF short (G / P) · US industrials ETF short (G / P) · US materials ETF short (G / P) · US consumer staples ETF short (G / P) · US technology ETF long (G / P) · Vanguard US technology ETF long (G / P) · Fidelity US technology ETF long (G / P) · semiconductor ETF long (G / P) · Magnificent Seven long (G / P) · S&P 500 Technology long (G / P) · US energy ETF long (G / P) · Vanguard US energy ETF short (G / P) · European basic resources ETF short (G / P) · European industrials ETF short (G / P) · European health care ETF short (G / P) · European autos ETF short (G / P) · European oil and gas ETF long (G / P) · European technology ETF long (G / P) · European banks ETF short (G / P) · European utilities ETF short (G / P) · FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) · gold ETF short (G / P) · S&P 500 long (G / P) · SPYM S&P 500 long (G / P) · SCHX US Large Cap long (G / P) · S&P 100 long (G / P) · S&P 500 Top 50 long (G / P) · Russell 3000 long (G / P) · Russell 1000 long (G / P) · VTI US Total Market short (G / P) · ITOT US Total Market short (G / P) · SCHB US Total Market short (G / P) · SPTM US Total Market short (G / P) · Russell 2000 ETF short (G / P) · VEA Developed Markets short (G / P) · VEU World ex US short (G / P) · Vanguard Total International Stock ETF short (G / P) · IXUS International Equity short (G / P) · SPDW Developed ex US short (G / P) · SCHF International Equity short (G / P) · IEFA Developed ex US short (G / P) · IDEV Developed Markets short (G / P) · Europe short (G / P) · Vanguard Total World Stock ETF long (G / P) · VWO Emerging Markets long (G / P) · SCHE Emerging Markets long (G / P) · SPEM Emerging Markets long (G / P) · Emerging Markets long (G / P) · Japan long (G / P) · VIG Dividend Growth short (G / P) · Dividend Growth short (G / P) · Min Volatility short (G / P) *
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TELECOMS
One announcement, two continents

AT&T stock down 10.82% and Verizon stock down 10.14% after the SpaceX spectrum deal, Deutsche Telekom stock down 7.94%, Telecom Italia lower, Inwit rises with the tower operators

SpaceX announced it is buying a nationwide block of 800 MHz spectrum for about 8 billion dollars, with the aim of taking its Starlink service into US mobile telephony. The market read it as the arrival of a well-funded fourth carrier in a sector that is already saturated, and repriced the others in a single session.

AT&T stockShort lost 10.82% on roughly four times its normal volume and closed near its session low: according to press reports it was the worst day since 2000. Verizon stockShort fell 10.14%, its worst since 2002 by the same accounts. AST SpaceMobileShort, which works on the same idea of phone service from satellites, lost 10.48%. The third US carrier, T-Mobile, is controlled by Deutsche Telekom, and the selling crossed the Atlantic within the day: in Frankfurt Deutsche Telekom stockShort lost 7.94% on more than three times its normal volume, closing near the low. In Paris OrangeShort fell 2.50%, and in Milan Telecom Italia stockShort 1.28%, closing at its session low.

Tower owners went the other way, because one more carrier is one more tenant: in Milan InwitLong rose 4.46% on twice its usual volume. Not every analyst shares the market's reading: a large US bank called the sell-off in the carriers a buying opportunity, and the deal still needs approval from the sector regulator.

How I read itOn telecoms our model was on sell almost everywhere before the news. The short on Verizon, opened on 21 September, is 11.53% in profit; the one on Deutsche Telekom, from the same date, 8.52%; Orange 8.72%, Telecom Italia 23.31% and AST SpaceMobile 38.16%. On the long side, Inwit is 7.83% ahead. On AT&T the model had been on buy since July: Friday's close turned the weekly signal to sell. The daily signal also turned to sell on AT&T, Deutsche Telekom and AST SpaceMobile. A 10% drop in one day, in stocks that usually move little, is a poor place to open a new short: those already short lower the stop, the others wait for a rebound and watch whether the weekly level holds as resistance.
AT&T short (G / P) · Verizon Communications short (G / P) · AST SpaceMobile short (G / P) · Deutsche Telekom short (G / P) · Orange short (G / P) · Telecom Italia short (G / P) · INWIT long (G / P) · US communication services ETF long (G / P) · European telecoms ETF short (G / P) *
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WALL STREET
Money changes legs inside technology

Software and semiconductor stocks: Microsoft stock up 2.38%, Palantir stock up 5.17%, Amazon stock up 3.29%, Zscaler and Snowflake above 7%, while chip stocks lag and Apple stock slips 1.11%

The session's second engine was the return to software. On Thursday a lower estimate of OpenAI's revenue had hit the whole artificial intelligence supply chain; on Friday a news agency reported that the company expects annualised revenue of 70 billion dollars or more by year end, and a large US bank wrote that the software recovery has further to run.

The biggest gains were in cybersecurity and data. ZscalerLong gained 7.80% after several brokers raised their price targets, SnowflakeLong 7.42%, closing at its session high on twice its normal volume, DatadogLong 7.11%, CloudflareLong 5.57%, Palo Alto NetworksLong 5.09%, CrowdStrikeLong 4.57% and FortinetLong 2.99%. Palantir stockLong rose 5.17% to a new all-time high, Oracle stockLong 4.21%, ShopifyLong 3.82% and CiscoLong 3.05%. Among the largest names Amazon stockShort added 3.29%, Microsoft stockLong 2.38% and TeslaLong 2.05%.

Semiconductor stocks fell for a second day: AMD stockLong down 2.03%, IntelLong 2.22%, Super MicroLong 2.14%, Texas InstrumentsLong 1.55%, Micron stockLong 0.66% and Nvidia stockLong 0.52%, closing at its session low. Hardware had two stories of its own. An Asian outlet reported cuts of 15% to 20% in component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro in October: Apple stockLong slipped 1.11% and ArmLong 3.27%. HPLong lost 6.91% after a company filing pointed to lower PC volumes in 2027. NetflixShort fell 1.77% and MetaLong 0.31%.

How I read itSoftware is where our model holds its largest gains, and on Friday they grew: CrowdStrike, on buy since 20 April, is 145.50% in profit, Fortinet 125.69%, Snowflake 114.22%, Zscaler 54.58%, Cloudflare 49.26%, Palantir 21.53%, Microsoft 15.14%, Datadog 9.37% and Palo Alto Networks 3.85%. The weekly close added two new buy signals, on Cisco and Shopify. After a run like this, Microsoft stocks and Palantir stocks are positions to manage with a rising stop rather than to chase. On semiconductors the weekly signals remain on buy with margins that are still wide, 6.04% on Nvidia, 8.30% on Micron and 10.00% on AMD, but on Friday AMD and Micron lost their daily signal: in swing trading that means waiting for the short-term signal to turn back before adding. Apple stays on buy, just above its entry. The session went against the short on Amazon, which shows a small loss, while the one on Netflix remains in profit; Oracle is back above its weekly level though still below its entry, and HP has slipped just under its own. In price action trading terms the week leaves a divided sector: software at its highs, chips below Tuesday's peak, and TSMC's results on 15 October as the first check.
Zscaler long (G / P) · Snowflake long (G / P) · Datadog long (G / P) · Cloudflare long (G / P) · Palo Alto Networks long (G / P) · CrowdStrike long (G / P) · Fortinet long (G / P) · Palantir Technologies long (G / P) · Oracle long (G / P) · Shopify long (G / P) · Cisco Systems long (G / P) · Amazon short (G / P) · Microsoft long (G / P) · Tesla long (G / P) · Advanced Micro Devices long (G / P) · Intel long (G / P) · Super Micro Computer long (G / P) · Texas Instruments long (G / P) · Micron Technology long (G / P) · NVIDIA long (G / P) · Apple long (G / P) · ARM long (G / P) · HP long (G / P) · Netflix short (G / P) · Meta Platforms long (G / P) *
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HEALTH CARE
Vaccines pull the sector higher

Moderna stock up 14.21% and Novavax up 15.80% on cancer vaccines, Pfizer stock and Merck higher, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson rise three days before earnings

Health care was Wall Street's second-best sector. Moderna stockLong gained 14.21%, closing at its session high on more than two and a half times its normal volume: a US newspaper published new details of a federal health institute initiative to speed up cancer vaccines, in the week the stock returns to the Nasdaq 100. The theme carried NovavaxLong, up 15.80% on nearly five times its normal volume and with no announcement of its own, MerckLong, up 2.26%, and Pfizer stockLong, up 1.65%.

Rising with them were BiogenLong, up 3.33%, GileadLong, up 2.77% with its daily signal back on buy, Intuitive SurgicalLong, up 2.06%, AbbVieLong, up 1.49%, RecursionLong, up 10.38%, and CRISPR TherapeuticsLong, up 5.85%. UnitedHealthShort added 2.25% and Johnson & JohnsonShort 1.93%: both report on Tuesday 13. Hims & HersShort rose 10.19% without a stated catalyst; AmgenShort gained 1.82% and VertexShort 1.36%.

How I read itOn US health care our model has been on buy since May through the sector ETF, and nearly all the stocks that made the session were longs already in profit: Moderna, on buy since 17 August, is 55.03% ahead, Novavax 42.62%, AbbVie 26.98%, Recursion 20.11%, Merck 18.94%, Biogen 16.68%, Gilead 12.58%, Intuitive Surgical 7.46% and Pfizer 5.68%. After a 14% day Moderna is far from any level: it is a trade to manage with a rising stop, and a move like that is no entry point. On the short side the session went against us: UnitedHealth is still 5.58% in profit, while the shorts on Hims & Hers and Amgen are losing. On Johnson & Johnson and Vertex the weekly close confirmed two new sell signals, the former three days before earnings.
US health care ETF long (G / P) · Moderna long (G / P) · Novavax long (G / P) · Merck long (G / P) · Pfizer long (G / P) · Biogen long (G / P) · Gilead Sciences long (G / P) · Intuitive Surgical long (G / P) · AbbVie long (G / P) · Recursion Pharmaceuticals long (G / P) · CRISPR Therapeutics long (G / P) · UnitedHealth short (G / P) · Johnson & Johnson short (G / P) · Hims & Hers Health short (G / P) · Amgen short (G / P) · Vertex Pharmaceuticals short (G / P) *
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ITALY
A broad rebound, led by stocks with no news

Milan market: Fincantieri stock up 6.89% and Amplifon stock up 6.81%, Saipem and Leonardo higher, UniCredit stock up 1.06% as its board reviews consolidation, STMicroelectronics stock down 3.02%

The Milan market closed higher after two sessions of selling: the FTSE MIB ETF rose 0.87%, less than Frankfurt, Paris and London. The spread between Italian and German government bonds narrowed again, by 1.6% on our data, and according to press reports it closed at 109 basis points.

The two best stocks had no news of the day. Fincantieri stockShort gained 6.89%: the market is re-rating a pipeline that was already known, with the 600 million euro expansion in underwater systems and the 3.7 billion euro order for two destroyers won at the end of September together with Leonardo. Amplifon stockLong rose 6.81% on almost three times its normal volume, with the capital increase tied to the acquisition of GN Hearing, announced at the end of September, still on the table. Saipem stockLong added 3.72% and closed at its session high, with the European review of its merger with Subsea7 still open; Leonardo stockShort rose 2.21%, also at its high; InwitLong 4.46% with the tower operators, DiaSorinLong 2.65%, BuzziShort 2.39% and TenarisLong 1.82%. For IvecoLong, up 0.56%, the raised bid arrived: Tata lifted its offer from 14.10 to 14.40 euros per share.

Among financials the theme was consolidation once more. The board of UniCreditShort reviewed the outlook for mergers in Italy and Europe, with press reports of an interest in Banca Generali, which is not in our universe: UniCredit stock rose 1.06%, MediobancaShort 1.82%, NexiShort 1.82%, FinecoBankShort 1.43%, Generali stockShort 1.41%, Monte dei Paschi stockShort 1.29%, Poste ItalianeShort 0.96%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort and Banco BPM stockShort 0.92%, Banca MediolanumShort 0.84% and BPERShort 0.62%. Ferrari stockShort added 1.47%, Eni stockLong 1.33% to a new all-time high, Enel stockShort 1.24% and MonclerShort 1.19%; Stellantis stockShort closed unchanged.

The losers were the stocks touched by the US news. STMicroelectronics stockLong lost 3.02%, closing near its session low on the day of the iPhone order reports: it was the worst of the Milan stocks we follow. AvioShort fell 2.10% and closed at its low, Telecom Italia stockShort 1.28% and MFEShort 1.11%.

How I read itThe weekly close changed more in Milan than the session did. The AiTrading67 model confirmed five new sell signals, on Monte dei Paschi, Mediobanca, Ferrari, Azimut and Lottomatica, and two new buy signals, on Amplifon and Saipem: Amplifon stocks and Saipem stocks, two of Friday's best performers, are also where the model turned. The older shorts remain wide despite the bounce: Telecom Italia is 23.31% in profit, Buzzi 15.73%, Moncler 16.47%, Leonardo 11.46%, Banco BPM 8.48%, FinecoBank 8.34%, Poste 7.48%, Enel 6.61%, UniCredit 3.45% and Intesa Sanpaolo 3.35%. On the long side Eni is 9.80% ahead, DiaSorin 9.88%, Inwit 7.83% and Tenaris 4.30%. Three positions stand against us: the short on Fincantieri stocks, now losing after the rally, the one on Nexi, and the long on STMicroelectronics, below its entry with a margin of 8.61% over the weekly level. There is a third horizon to watch: on the monthly signal the Italian basket closed 0.29% below its level, while Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca, Banco BPM and Prysmian moved back above theirs. For anyone following a trading strategy on Italian stocks, the calendar shows Tuesday 13, when parliament votes on the public finance document, and 21 October, when UniCredit reports.
Fincantieri short (G / P) · Amplifon long (G / P) · Saipem long (G / P) · Leonardo short (G / P) · INWIT long (G / P) · DiaSorin long (G / P) · Buzzi short (G / P) · Tenaris long (G / P) · Iveco long (G / P) · UniCredit short (G / P) · Mediobanca short (G / P) · Nexi short (G / P) · FinecoBank short (G / P) · Assicurazioni Generali short (G / P) · Monte dei Paschi short (G / P) · Poste Italiane short (G / P) · Intesa Sanpaolo short (G / P) · Banco BPM short (G / P) · Banca Mediolanum short (G / P) · BPER Banca short (G / P) · Ferrari short (G / P) · Eni long (G / P) · Enel short (G / P) · Moncler short (G / P) · Stellantis Milano short (G / P) · STMicroelectronics long (G / P) · Avio short (G / P) · Telecom Italia short (G / P) · MFE-MediaForEurope short (G / P) · Azimut short (G / P) · Lottomatica short (G / P) *
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EUROPE
Software, data and metals lead the rebound

SAP stock up 3.70% and Siemens stock up 2.97% in Frankfurt, RELX up 4.82% in London, Kering and EssilorLuxottica higher in Paris: Europe bounces, Rolls-Royce rises on unusual volume

In Frankfurt the theme mirrored US software. SAP stockLong rose 3.70%, the best of the German stocks we follow, recovering its late-September fall. Siemens stockShort added 2.97%, BayerShort 2.77% and Siemens HealthineersShort 2.30% with health care, AdidasShort 2.29% and Siemens EnergyShort 2.01%. Carmakers rose together: Volkswagen stockShort 2.10%, BMWShort 2.07% and Mercedes-BenzShort 1.45%.

In London the data companies led: RELXShort gained 4.82%, ExperianShort 4.20%, closing at its session high, and London Stock Exchange GroupShort 2.64%. Metals lifted GlencoreShort, up 2.80%, and Rio TintoShort, up 1.48%. Rolls-RoyceShort rose 1.33% on almost four times its normal volume and closed at its high, BAE SystemsShort 1.28% and CompassShort 1.46%. Tesco stockLong, the day after its results, added 0.68% on more than three times its normal volume, yet closed near its session low; National GridShort slipped 0.48%.

In Paris CapgeminiLong rose 3.79% with software, KeringShort 2.35%, closing at its high, EssilorLuxotticaShort 2.34%, Schneider ElectricShort 2.03%, SafranShort 1.74% and TotalEnergiesLong 1.22%. LVMHShort, down 0.24%, and DanoneShort, down 0.98%, lagged.

How I read itIn Europe our model is on sell on most names, and a one-day bounce has not changed the arithmetic. The shorts remain in profit on EssilorLuxottica, on sell since December 2025, 48.12% ahead, LVMH 17.70%, Kering 16.84%, Danone 13.95%, BAE Systems 9.00%, Siemens Energy 8.01%, Schneider Electric 6.77%, Adidas 5.99%, Volkswagen 5.19%, Safran 5.19%, BMW 4.41%, Mercedes-Benz 4.11%, Experian 3.59% and Bayer 2.60%. On the long side SAP, on buy since 27 July, is 21.42% in profit, Capgemini 12.24%, Tesco 5.80% and TotalEnergies 3.47%. The session went against us on RELX, London Stock Exchange Group, Glencore and Siemens, which rose against shorts that are now losing. On Rolls-Royce the weekly close confirmed a new sell signal in the very session the stock climbed on unusual volume: it is the case to look at again on Monday.
SAP long (G / P) · Siemens short (G / P) · Bayer short (G / P) · Siemens Healthineers short (G / P) · adidas short (G / P) · Siemens Energy short (G / P) · Volkswagen AG Pref short (G / P) · Bayerische Motoren Werke short (G / P) · Mercedes-Benz short (G / P) · RELX short (G / P) · Experian short (G / P) · London Stock Exchange short (G / P) · Glencore short (G / P) · Rio Tinto short (G / P) · Rolls-Royce short (G / P) · BAE Systems short (G / P) · Compass short (G / P) · Tesco long (G / P) · National Grid short (G / P) · Capgemini long (G / P) · Kering short (G / P) · EssilorLuxottica short (G / P) · Schneider Electric short (G / P) · Safran short (G / P) · TotalEnergies long (G / P) · LVMH short (G / P) · Danone short (G / P) *
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🇧🇷
BRAZIL
A record built on interest rates

MRV stock up 21.62%, Qualicorp up 15.71% and Lojas Renner up 11.56%: São Paulo closes at an all-time high, Petrobras stock higher, Gafisa falls on unusual volume

According to press reports the São Paulo index closed at a new all-time high after its best week since March 2020. The driver is political: the market is pricing a change of government after the first round of the election, and with it lower long-term interest rates. The most rate-sensitive stocks ran: MRVLong gained 21.62%, QualicorpLong 15.71%, closing at its session high, Lojas RennerLong 11.56%, EcoRodoviasLong 7.12%, CyrelaLong 6.44%, EvenLong 5.97%, CPFL EnergiaLong 4.55% and LocalizaLong 4.19%.

Steelmakers rose on a day when iron ore fell: CSNLong up 3.93%, GerdauLong up 3.71%, and even Vale stockShort closed 0.38% higher. Petrobras stockLong rose 1.82% in São Paulo and 2.47% on its New York line PBR; CosanLong added 3.05% and Itaú UnibancoLong 2.27%. Two names fell: GafisaLong lost 2.22% on more than eight times its normal volume, closing near its session low, and AmbevLong 0.99%.

How I read itOur Brazilian longs are the widest in the universe and on Friday they stretched further: EcoRodovias is 86.24% in profit, Cyrela 53.04%, MRV 50.67%, Localiza 42.14%, Petrobras 37.66% in São Paulo and 40.79% in New York, Cosan 31.07% in a single week, Even 26.22%, Itaú Unibanco 20.40% and CPFL Energia 12.43%. The weekly close confirmed four new buy signals, on Qualicorp, Lojas Renner, Gafisa and Ambev. On Vale the model is on sell and the short is still 4.06% ahead. A rally driven by expectations on rates and the election, while the commodity falls, is strong for as long as the political scenario holds: those who have held these stocks for weeks manage them with a rising stop, and the run-off on 25 October is the date to mark.
MRV long (G / P) · Qualicorp long (G / P) · Lojas Renner long (G / P) · EcoRodovias long (G / P) · Cyrela long (G / P) · Even long (G / P) · CPFL Energia long (G / P) · Localiza Rent A Car long (G / P) · CSN long (G / P) · Gerdau long (G / P) · Vale short (G / P) · Petrobras San Paolo long (G / P) · Petroleo Brasileiro long (G / P) · Cosan long (G / P) · Itau Unibanco long (G / P) · Gafisa long (G / P) · Ambev long (G / P) *
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INDICES
The bounce leaves the signals where they were

European indices: the DAX ETF rises 1.13% and the FTSE MIB ETF 0.87%, yet all four stay on sell on the daily and weekly charts

On Friday the four European indices rose together: the DAX ETFShort 1.13%, the FTSE 100Short one 1.10%, the CAC 40Short one 1.00% and the FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.87%. None of the four regained its daily level: the short-term signal remains on sell across the board.

On the weekly chart, with the candle now closed, the distance from the level that would end the sell signal is 4.45% for Milan, 3.30% for Frankfurt, 3.05% for Paris and 2.06% for London. The model's short is 6.89% in profit on the French basket, on sell since 24 August, 4.46% on the Italian one, since 31 August, and less than a point on the German and British baskets, both since 14 September.

How I read itThe basket that stands apart this week is the British one: it is the only one of the four to have closed the five sessions higher, and it is the closest to its weekly level. Milan, Paris and Frankfurt ended the week lower despite a positive Friday. On the Italian basket a warning stays lit on the third horizon: the monthly signal has been on buy since November 2022 and the price closed 0.29% below its level, nearer than on Thursday. It becomes a signal only if it holds until the October close. For our model, a one-point bounce inside four active weekly sell signals is still a bounce.
FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) · DAX ETF short (G / P) · CAC 40 ETF short (G / P) · FTSE 100 ETF short (G / P) *
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OUR MODEL
The first week closes

This week's new buy signals: the candle confirms all nine, Palo Alto Networks back above its entry, Cosan the best, the chip names below their entry price

The first full week of the 9 buy signals triggered on Friday 2 October has closed, and the candle confirmed them all: none saw its weekly signal turn. The price tally is what the mix suggested, since six of the nine are semiconductors or technology: STMicroelectronicsLong on its US line and STMicroelectronicsLong in Milan, Applied MaterialsLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, Astera LabsLong and the European technology ETF EXV3Long are below their entry price. Above it are CosanLong, 31.07% ahead, Palo Alto NetworksLong, 3.85%, and CarnivalLong, 2.29%.

Until Monday's full table this card reports only what has changed. On Friday there was one change: Palo Alto Networks moved back above its entry price.

Instrument
Signal of the day
Weekly confirmed
My reading
🇺🇸 PANWLong
Palo Alto Networks
earnings 12/11
BUY
9 October
buy confirmed
week closed on 09/10
Up 5.09% in one session and back above its entry, 3.85% above the signal. Daily, weekly and monthly signals all remain on buy, with a margin of 14.45% over the weekly level.
How I read itA group of signals born on a recovery in semiconductors met, in its first week, a piece of news against semiconductors: six names lost their short-term signal and sit below their entry, while the weekly levels held everywhere, with margins ranging from 5.20% on the ETF to 20.76% on Cosan. The three names outside the sector are all in profit. The nearest results are those of Texas Instruments, on 21 October. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
STMicroelectronics RegS long (G / P) · STMicroelectronics long (G / P) · Applied Materials long (G / P) · Texas Instruments long (G / P) · European technology ETF long (G / P) · Carnival long (G / P) · Cosan long (G / P) · Astera Labs long (G / P) · Palo Alto Networks long (G / P) *
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📅
CALENDAR
The US banks start on Tuesday

This week's earnings: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, Bank of America and BlackRock on Wednesday, Charles Schwab and TSMC on Thursday

Twelve companies in our universe report over the next seven days, all of them American. On Tuesday 13 October the season opens with the banks, Goldman SachsShort, JPMorganShort, CitigroupShort and Wells FargoShort, alongside Johnson & JohnsonShort and UnitedHealthShort; Wednesday 14 brings Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort, and Thursday 15 Charles SchwabShort, Interactive BrokersShort, IridiumShort and TSMCLong. Wednesday also brings the US inflation figure.

Tuesday 13 October

Goldman Sachs Short

JPMorgan Chase Short

Citigroup Short

Wells Fargo Short

Johnson & Johnson Short

UnitedHealth Short

Wednesday 14 October

Bank of America Short

BlackRock Short

Thursday 15 October

Charles Schwab Short

Interactive Brokers Short

Iridium Communications Short

TSMC Long

How I read itOur model goes into earnings on sell on 11 of the twelve names, the large banks among them: Goldman Sachs is the most advanced short, 13.80% in profit, then Bank of America at 5.91%, UnitedHealth at 5.58% and JPMorgan at 2.94%. On Johnson & Johnson the sell signal was triggered by Friday's close. TSMC is on buy, and its results are the first check on chip demand after a hard week for the sector. An earnings report can move a stock in either direction by more than it travels in a month: on the names above, position size matters more than direction, and anyone holding a position takes it into the numbers knowing where the weekly level stands.
Goldman Sachs short (G / P) · JPMorgan Chase short (G / P) · Citigroup short (G / P) · Wells Fargo short (G / P) · Johnson & Johnson short (G / P) · UnitedHealth short (G / P) · Bank of America short (G / P) · BlackRock short (G / P) · Charles Schwab short (G / P) · Interactive Brokers short (G / P) · Iridium Communications short (G / P) · TSMC long (G / P) *
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UNITED STATES
One week, two speeds

SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY rises 0.60% and ends the week near its record, QQQ recovers 0.49% but stays on sell on the daily chart

SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, rose 0.60% on volume half its twenty-session average, and ended the week up 1.16%, less than half a point from Tuesday's all-time high. Both horizons are on buy: the daily level sits 0.87% below the price, the weekly one 2.54%. QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, recovered 0.49% without leaving Thursday's range, on volume 38% below average, and ends the week up 0.23%. The daily signal remains on sell, with its level 1.15% above the price; the weekly one is on buy with a margin of 3.66%.

On targets the two are at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, which sits far above the entry price. QQQ has closed its eighth week with two windows still ahead, and has never closed beyond the threshold that, under our rule, arms the break-even stop.

How I read itSPY protects a gain of 14.59% in its twenty-sixth week, QQQ is 2.76% ahead in its eighth. The week's difference lies in the mix: the financials, health care, energy and utilities that kept the broad index at its highs make up almost a third of the S&P 500 and less than a tenth of the Nasdaq 100, where half the basket is technology and semiconductors lost 5% in five sessions. On Friday the broad index also absorbed a 10% fall in two phone carriers. One piece of context is worth knowing: the volatility of US government bonds remains high relative to that of equities, measured against its own two years, and has been for 12 sessions. It is a fact and not a forecast: in the past it has come before weak quarters and strong ones alike. For our model, direction comes from the signal, which is buy on both baskets; on the Nasdaq 100 the short term still needs confirmation, a close above the daily level.
S&P 500 long (G / P) · Invesco QQQ Trust long (G / P) *
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The desk's take

The big picture: calm indices, moving sectors

The week ends with the S&P 500 within reach of its record and with a dispersion across sectors that the index does not show. In five sessions the market questioned spending on artificial intelligence and then the value of the phone carriers, and in both cases money moved without leaving: from silicon to software, from networks to towers, from technology to health care. The backdrop is less comfortable. The US ten-year yield is at its highest in more than twenty years according to press reports, consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan fell short of expectations, and rate futures are pricing another increase by the central bank in December. In Europe Friday's bounce did not change the signals: the four indices we follow remain on sell. Our model closes the week with 27 new weekly signals, 14 buys and 13 sells, and from Tuesday puts them to the test with the US bank earnings.

What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.

Previous editions
9 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 3.35%, the energy ETF gains 2.97% and Eni stock rises 2.66% in Milan8 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the European banks ETF falls 3.33%, the FTSE MIB ETF 2.42% and UniCredit stock loses 4.18% in Milan7 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the utilities ETF jumps 2.98% on a nuclear deal, the S&P 500 ETF touches a record and UniCredit gains 1.64% in Milan6 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: emerging markets ETFs jump on Brazil, the Nasdaq ETF sets another record and Mediobanca drops 5.14% in Milan5 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the Nasdaq ETF sets a record, Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit turn to sell in Milan and STMicroelectronics stock jumps 6.67%2 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the European banks ETF sinks, the energy ETF leads and Accenture stock jumps 15.78% on earningsView all editions on the tag page →

* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).

Disclaimer. The content on this page is published for educational and informational purposes and reflects the author's personal opinion and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment solicitation, or a personalised recommendation. Trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss of the capital invested. Every operating decision rests solely with the reader, who acts independently and in full awareness of that risk. AiTrading67 is not a broker or financial intermediary and is not affiliated with any broker or trading platform.
Sources
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Stock Market Today, Oct. 9, 2026 — TheStreet, 9 ottobre 2026
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2
Stock market today: live blog, Friday October 9 — Yahoo Finance, 9 ottobre 2026
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3
Wireless Carriers' Day of Woe After SpaceX Spectrum Deal — WSJ via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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4
AT&T Sinks 11% In Worst Day Since 2000 As SpaceX Spectrum Deal Rattles Carriers — Benzinga via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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5
SpaceX spectrum deal sends Deutsche Telekom shares falling 7% — Reuters via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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6
Telecom Stocks Are Plunging on SpaceX Fears. Why Citi Says It's Time to Buy the Dip — Barron's via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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7
JPM sees software rally extending, favors Microsoft, ServiceNow, Snowflake — Seeking Alpha via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
8
Zscaler Price Target Raised to $265.00/Share From $210.00 by Citizens — Dow Jones via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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9
BNTX, NVAX, MRNA Lead Vaccine Rally After Report Of An NIH Cancer-Vaccine Push — Stocktwits via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
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10
Moderna stock fires past 52-week high: what's behind Friday's rally? — Invezz via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
11
Borsa: Milano chiude in rialzo, balzo di Fincantieri e Amplifon — ANSA, 9 ottobre 2026
ansa.it
12
Milano chiude a +0,91%: cosa c'è dietro il balzo di Fincantieri — SoldiOnline, 9 ottobre 2026
soldionline.it
13
Iveco, Tata alza corrispettivo offerta a 14,40 euro da 14,10 — Reuters via TradingView, 9 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
14
Ibovespa bate novo recorde acima de 209 mil e tem melhor semana desde março de 2020 — InfoMoney, 9 ottobre 2026
infomoney.com.br
15
Daily Precious Metals Market Report, October 9 2026 — USAGOLD, 9 ottobre 2026
usagold.com
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