ETF and stock technical analysis: the utilities ETF jumps 2.98% on a nuclear deal, the S&P 500 ETF touches a record and UniCredit gains 1.64% in Milan
On Tuesday 6 October government bond yields stopped climbing, and ETFs show who made the most of it. The US utilities ETF XLU gained 2.98%, the best of the eleven sectors, lifted by a twenty-year nuclear supply contract signed with Google. The S&P 500 ETF SPY rose 0.55% and printed a new all-time high during the session, its first since August, and the Nasdaq ETF QQQ added 0.46% for a third record in three sessions, while the small-cap ETF IWM lost 0.72%. In Europe the FTSE MIB ETF MIB gained 0.81% and turned the daily signal on the Milan market back to buy, as did the DAX ETF DAX, up 0.74%. The European banks ETF EXV1 added 1.21% and the gold ETF GLD 0.72%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan UniCredit stock gained 1.64% after the bank raised its profit guidance, STMicroelectronics stock 2.22%, Stellantis stock 2.12% and Prysmian stock 1.84%, while Leonardo stock fell 2.24% and Fincantieri stock 3.55% as European defence sold off. On Wall Street Constellation Energy stock surged 12.25%, Marvell stock rose 5.82% after its investor day, AMD stock 2.77% and Nvidia stock 0.15% to a new record, while Moderna stock dropped 7.75%. In London BAE Systems stock slid 4.08% and in Paris Schneider Electric stock lost a further 4.51%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names: long Marvell at 21.08%, Zscaler at 40.38%, Nvidia at 6.82%, AMD, STMicroelectronics, Monte dei Paschi at 26.99%, SAP at 19.61% and the two US ETFs, SPY on the S&P 500 and QQQ on the Nasdaq; short Leonardo at 10.69%, Telecom Italia at 16.71%, BAE Systems at 9.25%, Schneider Electric at 8.84%, Western Digital at 23.74% and the four European indices, through the ETFs on the FTSE MIB, the DAX, the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100.
- ETF technical analysis: utilities, S&P 500, Vanguard, gold
- Constellation Energy and power for data centres
- Wall Street: semiconductor stocks, Marvell, AMD, Nvidia
- Milan: UniCredit, Recordati, Leonardo
- Europe: BAE Systems, LVMH, Schneider Electric
- Brazil: Banco do Brasil, Petrobras, Vale
- European indices: Milan and Frankfurt turn the short term
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the utilities ETF leads on a nuclear deal, the S&P 500 ETF prints a new high, the Vanguard technology ETF stays on buy and the gold ETF recovers
An ETF is a fund that trades on an exchange like a share and tracks a basket: an index, a sector, a commodity. Lining up the baskets of a single session tells you more than the index figure does, because it shows which parts of the market did the work and which stood by.
On Tuesday the work was done by whatever depends on interest rates. XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, rose 2.98%: it holds the power producer that signed a twenty-year contract with Google for 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity. Behind it came XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, the consumer discretionary ETF, up 1.18%, XLRE, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, the US real estate ETF, up 1.06%, XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, up 0.94%, and XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, the US industrials ETF, up 0.87%. Our model is on sell on all five, and on all five the short is still in profit: 5.62% on utilities, where the signal dates from 3 August, 6.44% on real estate and 3.14% on industrials. None of the five has reclaimed its weekly level. In Europe EXH9, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS, the European utilities ETF, gained 0.61%.
In energy the news was the G7's decision to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves over four months. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, still closed 0.47% higher and the model's long is up 10.52%; VDE, the Vanguard Energy ETF, the Vanguard energy ETF, added 0.44% and has been on sell since the close of 2 October; EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, was flat at 0.09%, with a long up 4.59%.
Technology contributed less than usual. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gained 0.53%, VGT, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, the Vanguard technology ETF, 0.46%, FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology ETF, 0.49% and QDVE, the iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, its European counterpart, 0.73%. The model has been on buy on all four since 10 August, with gains between 5.91% and 10.15%. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the semiconductor ETF, was unchanged for a second session as gains in some names were offset by losses in others; MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, added 0.54% and is up 10.45%.
GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the world's most heavily traded gold ETF, recovered 0.72%; our model has been on sell since 21 September and the short is up 2.83%. XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, added 0.24% with a short up 3.31%, and XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, was the only sector lower, down 0.17%, inside a long worth 11.79%. In Europe the leaders were EXHG, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS, the European autos ETF, up 1.28%, and EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, up 1.21%: the latter, on sell since last week, has climbed in two sessions to two and a half points above the short's entry price. EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF and this week's new buy signal, gained 0.35%, and EXV4, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS, 0.48%, with a short up 5.28%. At the bottom were EXV2, the European telecoms ETF, down 0.30%, and EXH4, the European industrials ETF, down 0.27%, where defence weighs. The full global ETF technical analysis, basket by basket, is on our dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad-index ETFs, family by family. Alongside the sectors, our model tracks more than thirty funds on the broad baskets, the ones that end up in long-term portfolios.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, the world's most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF, touched a new all-time high and is up 14.66% from the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF, are up 14.71% and 14.72%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100 ETF, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF, on buy since 3 August, stand at 1.64% and 2.75%. On the total market the signal has been on sell since 14 September, and Tuesday's gains of 0.49% to 0.58% take the short's loss to around two points: VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, the Vanguard total US market ETF, SCHB, the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF, and SPTM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 ETF, remain on sell with nothing else to report, while on ITOT, the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF, and on the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB, the weekly candle in progress is printing a buy signal, provisional until Friday. At the other end sits IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the small-cap ETF: down 0.72% on the day of the record, with the model's short up 4.96%.
Developed markets ex-US ETFs. Very little moved here. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, VEU, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF, the Vanguard international ETF, SPDW, the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF, and SCHF, the Schwab International Equity ETF, all closed within a tenth of a point of unchanged and remain around the entry price of last week's sell signal. On sell since 14 September are VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF, the Vanguard Europe ETF, at 1.85%, IEFA, the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF, and IDEV, the iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF. On buy are IXUS, the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF, at 5.18%, and VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, the global equity ETF, at 10.84%.
Emerging markets and Japan ETFs. After Monday's jump the emerging markets funds held their ground: VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, up 0.02%, SCHE, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF, down 0.05%, SPEM, the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF, up 0.06%, and IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, down 0.63%. All four stay on buy and in profit, by between 0.90% and 3.53%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF, the Japan ETF, was flat.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, Vanguard's dividend ETF, gained 0.68%, DGRO, the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF, 0.64% and USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol ETF, 0.80%. All three have been on sell since 8 September: the first two are still in profit, by 0.70% and 2.16%, and the third is back at its entry price.
Constellation Energy stock up 12.25% after its nuclear contract with Google: Quanta Services, GE Vernova, Eaton and Cameco follow
The corporate story of the session was a supply contract. Constellation EnergyShort and AlphabetShort signed a twenty-year agreement to bring 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity onto the PJM grid, which serves the US East Coast, with more than 4.3 billion dollars of investment committed by the producer. Constellation Energy stock gained 12.25%, a move about three times its typical daily range.
Everything that sells electricity, grids and equipment to data centres moved with it: FuelCell EnergyShort up 14.28%, CamecoShort 6.35%, Quanta ServicesShort 5.29%, NuScale PowerShort 4.43%, GE VernovaShort 3.96%, Bloom EnergyLong 3.19%, EatonShort 2.89% and PG&EShort 1.21%. Alphabet closed 0.34% higher: on the same day a 1.2 billion pound trial over its app store fees opened in London, and it is due to run for seven weeks.
Semiconductor stocks and software lead: Marvell stock up 5.82%, AMD and Broadcom higher, Nvidia at a record, Western Digital and Moderna fall
Among semiconductor stocks the day belonged to individual companies more than to the group. Marvell stockLong rose 5.82% after an investor day at which the company guided to roughly 20 billion dollars of revenue in fiscal 2028, above expectations. Broadcom stockShort gained 3.67% after an investment bank argued that the power bottleneck leaves 2027 estimates intact, AMD stockLong 2.77% on a price target lifted from 575 to 800 dollars, and Nvidia stockLong 0.15%, enough for a new all-time high. Astera LabsLong added 7.58%, CiscoShort 4.54% and Arista NetworksLong 4.09%. On the other side Intel stockLong lost 3.18%, Applied MaterialsLong 2.21%, Micron stockLong 1.73% and TSMCLong 0.72%.
Software and cybersecurity did the rest: ZscalerLong up 5.18%, AutodeskShort 4.39%, FortinetLong 3.88%, Palo Alto NetworksLong 3.23%, ShopifyShort 2.70%, CrowdStrikeLong 2.27%, Amazon stockShort 1.95% and PalantirLong 1.41%. The largest names barely moved: Microsoft stockLong up 0.78%, Tesla stockLong 0.51%, Apple stockLong 0.22% and Meta stockLong down 0.41%. SalesforceShort fell 2.09% and AppLovinShort 1.13%.
Each of the larger declines had its own cause. Western DigitalShort lost 6.93% on fears that a Japanese competitor will expand hard-drive capacity, and SandiskLong 2.56%. Moderna stockLong dropped 7.75% on profit-taking after its high for the year, despite the announcement that it rejoins the Nasdaq 100 on 9 October, and NovavaxLong 9.87% on 4.9 times its normal volume, after Monday's 20% gain. BoeingShort slipped 1.50% on the day it won a contract worth about 14.7 billion dollars for components of a missile-defence system, and BlaizeShort lost 33.43% after the preliminary revenue update it released after Monday's close. In health care MerckLong recovered 1.72% and Eli LillyShort 1.26%.
Milan market: UniCredit stock up 1.64% on raised profit guidance, Recordati at the new 53 euro bid, Leonardo, Fincantieri and Telecom Italia lower
The Milan market closed higher for a second session, with the FTSE MIB ETF up 0.81% and the spread between Italian and German government bonds narrowing by 8% in a day. Banks drove the move. UniCredit stockShort gained 1.64% after the bank raised its 2026 guidance, pointing to net profit "well above" 11 billion euros; among Italian bank shares, UniCredit stocks were the clearest case of news moving the price. NexiShort rose 2.87%, Monte dei PaschiLong 2.34%, BPERShort 1.53%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 1.26%, with the bank reporting the purchase of about 45.9 million of its own shares in one week, FinecoBankShort 0.93%, GeneraliShort 0.62% and MediobancaLong 0.50%. Banco BPMShort was flat at 0.10%.
Outside financials the story was RecordatiLong, up 1.72% after the bidding vehicle raised its tender offer from 51.29 to 53.00 euros a share and extended the acceptance period to 23 October; the shares closed just above the new price. Also higher were MFEShort, up 3.97%, InwitLong, 3.56%, STMicroelectronics stockLong, 2.22%, Stellantis stockShort, 2.12%, Prysmian stockShort, 1.84%, Ferrari stockLong, 1.19%, and Enel stockShort, 0.98%. Among names we do not cover, Technoprobe received an initiation with a positive rating from a large US bank.
The market also had a long tail. Telecom Italia stockShort lost 3.66%. Defence fell as a block after the drop in BAE Systems in London: Fincantieri stockShort down 3.55%, AvioShort 2.59% and Leonardo stockShort 2.24%. Oil names were lower too after the G7's decision on reserves: Tenaris stockLong down 2.84%, SaipemShort 1.77% and Eni stockLong 1.13%.
BAE Systems stock down 4.08% as European defence sells off, analysts split on LVMH and Hermès, BNP Paribas, SAP and Infineon higher
The sharpest move in Europe was in defence. BAE Systems stockShort lost 4.08%: according to press reports the market fears slower-than-expected British military spending, a question reopened by the resignation of the defence secretary, who had complained about precisely that. It was followed by RheinmetallShort, down 2.77%, Rolls-RoyceLong, 2.69%, ThalesShort, 1.90%, and AirbusShort, 0.57%.
In Paris Schneider Electric stockShort gave up a further 4.51% after Monday's 9.97% drop, on 3.6 times its normal volume and with a close near the session low. In luxury, two investment banks delivered opposite verdicts on two neighbouring names on the same day: one cut Hermès to sell and another initiated coverage with the same rating, while LVMH received a new buy rating. LVMH stockShort added 1.23% and HermèsShort slipped 0.31%. KeringShort rose 2.03% after a transformation plan that includes closing more than 100 stores and a new beauty partnership with L'OréalLong. Banks recovered, with BNP Paribas stockShort up 2.51% and Société GénéraleShort 2.00%, alongside VinciShort, up 2.92%, DanoneShort, 1.84%, and Saint-GobainShort, 1.54%.
In Germany the gainers were adidasShort, up 2.00%, Deutsche BörseLong, 1.93%, SAP stockLong, 1.92%, Infineon stockShort, 1.91%, BASFShort, 1.67%, SiemensShort, 1.45%, and BayerShort, 1.09%. In London AstraZenecaShort gained 1.65% after announcing more than a billion dollars of investment in Massachusetts, London Stock ExchangeShort 1.77%, LloydsShort 1.63% and UnileverLong 1.52%. Two British names stood out for turnover: DiageoShort, up 1.78% on 7.3 times its normal volume, and ShellLong, up 0.54% on 3.1 times.
Banco do Brasil stock down 6.42% after a downgrade, Petrobras and Vale lower: the Brazilian market pauses without undoing its rally
After the surge that followed the first round of the presidential election, the Brazilian market handed back a small part of its gain on Tuesday, while press reports had the dollar falling below 5 reais for the first time since May. Banco do Brasil stockLong lost 6.42%, on 3.8 times its normal volume and with a close near the session low, after a US investment bank downgraded it. Petrobras stockLong fell 1.80% in São Paulo and 1.41% on its New York line PBRLong, ValeShort 1.44% and CosanLong 1.96%.
The rest held or kept rising: EcoRodoviasLong up 5.35%, Bradesco stockLong 3.25%, CyrelaLong 3.14%, Itaú UnibancoLong 1.96%, SabespLong 1.68% and LocalizaLong down 0.16%. GafisaShort added 21.21%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF and the DAX ETF turn their daily signal back to buy, the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 stay on sell on both horizons
On Tuesday the four European indices rose together: the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort by 0.81%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort by 0.74%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort by 0.44% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort by 0.41%. The difference lies in the daily signal. Milan and Frankfurt turned it back to buy, with prices 1.50% and 1.32% above their short-term level; Paris and London remain below theirs, by 1.01% and 0.46%.
Nothing changed on the weekly horizon. All four are still below the level that would close the sell signal: Paris by 2.65%, Milan by 2.51%, London by 2.23% and Frankfurt by 1.89%. The model's short is up 6.10% on the CAC 40, where it dates from 24 August, 1.69% on the FTSE MIB, on sell since 31 August, and 0.99% on the FTSE 100; on the DAX it is around its entry price. The Italian basket sits 5.33% below its all-time high.
This week's new buy signals: Carnival back above its entry, Applied Materials below, Astera Labs up 7.58% and STMicroelectronics stock higher
The 9 buy signals born on Friday 2 October have had their second session, and all nine still have the daily signal on buy. The spread between them has widened: Astera LabsLong gained 7.58% and is 11.27% above its signal, Palo Alto NetworksLong 3.23%, STMicroelectronics stockLong 2.22% in Milan and 1.80% on its New York line STMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong 0.79% and the European technology ETF EXV3Long 0.35%. CosanLong gave back 1.96% after Monday's 23.79%, on 3.2 times its normal volume and with a close in the lower part of the day's range.
Midweek, this card is limited to what has changed since Monday's full table. Today there are two changes, and they point in opposite directions: Applied MaterialsLong has slipped below its entry price, and CarnivalLong has moved back above it. The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.
This week's earnings: PepsiCo, Tesco and Tilray on Thursday, Delta on Friday, then JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and BlackRock
Thirteen companies in our universe report between now and next Wednesday. Today brings Applied DigitalShort, Thursday 8 October PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort, and Friday 9 Delta Air LinesShort. The US season opens on Tuesday 13 with JPMorganShort, Goldman SachsShort, CitigroupShort and Wells FargoShort, together with Johnson & JohnsonLong and UnitedHealthShort; Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort follow on Wednesday 14.
Wednesday 7 October
Applied Digital Short
Thursday 8 October
PepsiCo Short
Tesco Long
Tilray Brands Short
Friday 9 October
Delta Air Lines Short
Tuesday 13 October
JPMorgan Chase Short
Goldman Sachs Short
Citigroup Short
Wells Fargo Short
Johnson & Johnson Long
UnitedHealth Short
Wednesday 14 October
Bank of America Short
BlackRock Short
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY touches its first all-time high since August, QQQ sets a third record in three sessions
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, gained 0.55% and traded through its August record during the session. The close ended 0.04% below that old high and in the lower third of the day's range: the break is there on the highs and still missing on a closing basis. The price sits 1.02% above the daily level and 2.58% above the weekly one, on volume 23% below its twenty-session average. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, added 0.46% and set a third all-time high in three sessions, but closed below its open, in the lower part of its range, 1.26% above the daily level and 3.94% above the weekly one. Volume here was below average too, by 21%.
Both baskets opened with a gap and left it unfilled between Monday's high and Tuesday's low; that gap is now the first support. On targets the two remain in opposite phases: SPY has passed all three scale-out windows and is managed on the weekly Reversal Point, while QQQ is in its eighth week with two windows still ahead.
The big picture: a record that is broad on top and narrow underneath
For two weeks the market had followed a single variable, rising yields, and on Tuesday that variable paused. The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels from reserves, US yields came off their highest levels in more than twenty years and the S&P 500 touched a record with ten sectors out of eleven higher. Below the large caps the picture is less tidy: small caps fell, health care closed lower and in Europe defence lost ground from London to Milan while banks recovered. Our model comes into this on buy on US large caps and technology, and on sell on utilities, financials, defence and the four European indices. One session of relief in government bonds does not overturn three weeks: the test is Friday's close.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).