ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 3.35%, the energy ETF gains 2.97% and Eni stock rises 2.66% in Milan
On Thursday 8 October the market changed the subject, and ETFs show it more clearly than the indices do. The semiconductor ETF SOXX lost 3.35% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ 1.34% after a financial daily put OpenAI's annualised revenue at about 50 billion dollars, some 20 billion below what the market had taken on board at the end of September. The S&P 500 ETF SPY kept its decline to 0.42%, because the energy ETF XLE rose 2.97% with crude oil and the consumer staples ETF XLP 2.11%. In Europe the European banks ETF EXV1 fell 2.13% for a second day and the FTSE MIB ETF MIB 1.27%: the Milan market was again the weakest of the four European baskets we follow, while the European oil and gas ETF EXH1 gained 2.41%. The gold ETF GLD recovered 0.73%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan, Eni stock was the best performer, up 2.66%, while UniCredit stock fell 3.08%, Intesa Sanpaolo 2.95%, STMicroelectronics 3.75% and Telecom Italia 3.63%. On Wall Street, Nvidia stock lost 2.94%, Broadcom stock 4.35%, Micron stock 4.79% and Oracle stock 5.48%, while Apple stock rose 1.11%, the only one of the seven largest names to gain, and Palantir stock 2.40% on an upgrade. With oil higher, Exxon gained 2.71% and Chevron 3.12%. In London Tesco rose 5.17% after lifting its profit guidance; in Frankfurt Volkswagen dropped 4.50%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names: long energy since July, with the XLE ETF 13.11% in profit, Eni 8.36%, Chevron 12.90%, Exxon 7.37%, Shell 16.83% and the European fund EXH1 6.54%; long Tesco, Apple and Palantir, the last of these 15.56% ahead; short UniCredit, 4.46% in profit, Intesa Sanpaolo, 4.24%, Telecom Italia, 22.32%, Volkswagen, 7.14%, the European banks ETF EXV1 and the four European indices through the FTSE MIB, DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 ETFs. In semiconductors the model is on buy and the session went against it: the weekly signals on SOXX, Nvidia and Micron held, as did those on the two US ETFs, SPY on the S&P 500 and QQQ on the Nasdaq 100.
- ETF technical analysis: semiconductors, energy, European banks, gold
- Wall Street and semiconductor stocks: Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, Oracle, Apple
- Energy: Eni, Exxon, Chevron, Shell
- Milan market: UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, STMicroelectronics, Eni
- Europe: Tesco, Volkswagen, GSK
- United States: PepsiCo, Starbucks, Caterpillar
- Brazil: Petrobras, EcoRodovias, Vale
- European indices: Frankfurt back on sell in the short term too
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF and the Nasdaq ETF turn to sell on the daily chart, the energy ETF rises with oil, the European banks ETF falls again and the gold ETF recovers
An ETF is a listed fund that tracks a basket: buying it means owning every company in an index or a sector in a single trade, at whatever price the market is quoting at that moment. On Thursday that made it possible to read a day which looked like one session on the index screens and was really two.
The first belonged to technology. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, lost 3.35% and turned to sell on its daily signal: the price is back 1.64% below its entry, but the weekly buy signal, triggered on 21 September, keeps a margin of 6.47%. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, fell 1.79% and turned its daily signal to sell as well, as did VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, down 1.64%, and FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, down 1.67%. All three have been on a weekly buy since 10 August, with gains between 3.83% and 4.09%. QDVE, the European-listed fund on S&P 500 technology, slipped 0.34% and is 9.58% in profit; MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, eased 0.90% and is still 9.15% ahead. EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF, gave up 0.46%.
The second belonged to energy, and it ran the other way. Crude oil rose 3.6% and XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, gained 2.97%: it was the best of the eleven sectors, and the model's long, opened on 13 July, moves to a gain of 13.11%. In Europe EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, added 2.41%, with a long that has been 6.54% in profit since 20 July. VDE, Vanguard Energy, the Vanguard energy ETF, rose 2.84%: there the weekly signal has been on sell since 28 September, and the session went against it.
Beneath technology, the US market held up: eight of the eleven sectors closed higher. XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, rose 2.11%, XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, 0.89%, XLC on communication services 0.73%, XLRE on real estate 0.69%, XLB on materials 0.59%, XLI on industrials 0.33% and XLY on consumer discretionary 0.31%. Communication services aside, where the model is long, these are rebounds inside weekly sell signals that are still live: none has reclaimed its level, and the closest is XLP, 0.41% below. Falling alongside technology were XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, down 0.39% with the long 12.50% ahead, and XLU, the utilities ETF, down 0.19%.
In Europe almost nothing rose except oil. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, lost 2.13% and again traded a very large multiple of its usual volume; EXV4, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS, the European health care ETF, fell 2.40% and closed near its session low; EXHG, the European autos ETF, dropped 2.21%. The model is on sell on all three and the shorts are in profit: 2.96% on banks, 5.84% on health care, 4.24% on autos. Also lower were EXV2 on telecoms, down 1.40%, EXH4 on industrials, 1.05%, and EXV6 on basic resources, 0.87%; EXH9, the European utilities ETF, closed 0.22% higher. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS, the FTSE MIB ETF, gave up 1.27%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, recovered 0.73%, and the model's short, opened on 21 September, is still 3.76% in profit. The full ETF technical analysis, covering every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad index ETFs, family by family. Alongside sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the large baskets, the ones that end up in savings plans and long-term portfolios.
US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, slipped 0.42% and is 13.90% above the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are 13.89% and 13.86% ahead. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, on buy since 3 August, lost 0.63% and 0.89%, more than the index because they concentrate the largest names, and are 1.03% and 1.88% in profit. On the total market the signal has been on sell since 14 September and the short is still slightly underwater, by between 1.09% and 1.56%: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, IWV, iShares Russell 3000, and IWB, iShares Russell 1000, lost between 0.29% and 0.41%. At the other end, IWM, iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, was almost flat, down 0.05%, and the model's short is 6.23% in profit.
Developed markets ETFs outside the United States. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, lost 0.57%, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, 0.81%, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, 0.81%, SCHF, Schwab International Equity, 0.62%, and SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, 0.58%, on almost four times its normal volume and with a close near the session high. On all five the sell signal dates from 28 September and is in profit, by between 1.52% and 1.79%. On sell since 14 September are VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, 3.15% ahead, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, 2.16%, and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, 2.25%. Still on buy are IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, 3.08% in profit, where the weekly candle in progress is printing a provisional sell that tonight's close will confirm or cancel, and VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, 9.48% in profit: its daily signal has turned to sell and the price now sits only 0.55% above the weekly level.
Emerging markets and Japan ETFs. Emerging markets lost more than a point for a second day: VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, down 1.25%, SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, 1.28%, SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, 1.28%, and IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, 1.88%. The weekly signal is still on buy, but the cushion is gone: VWO and SPEM closed just below their level, SCHE is above it by a whisker, and IEMG keeps 1.38%. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, gave up 0.93%, turned its daily signal to sell and is just below its entry price.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, added 0.17%, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, 0.72%, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, 0.53%. They have been on sell since 8 September: VIG and DGRO are still in profit, by 0.85% and 1.74%, while USMV is back above its level and the short is slightly underwater.
Nvidia stock down 2.94%, Broadcom and Micron more than 4%, Oracle stock 5.48%: semiconductor stocks slide after the OpenAI revenue report, and Apple stock is the only megacap to rise
The trigger came from a financial daily: in documents sent to investors at the end of September, OpenAI's annualised revenue was reportedly about 50 billion dollars, against the 68 to 70 billion the market had assumed. The company did not comment, and according to the news agencies the higher figure had not come from the company. That was enough to set off selling across every business that lives on that spending, and semiconductor stocks took the brunt.
The declines were far from uniform. Nvidia stockLong lost 2.94%, the smallest fall of any large semiconductor stock. The companies that depend on that demand without the same pricing power paid more: ArmLong down 6.48%, Oracle stockLong 5.48%, IntelLong 5.34%, SandiskLong 4.90%, Super MicroLong 4.83%, Micron stockLong 4.79% with a close near the session low, Broadcom stockShort 4.35%, AMD stockLong 3.90%, MarvellLong 3.52%, TSMCLong 3.01% and Western DigitalShort 2.99%. Broadcom was also weighed down by a press report that it is arranging more than 50 billion dollars of financing for the chips it develops with OpenAI. Among the smaller infrastructure names the falls were steeper: CoreWeaveShort 7.77%, IRENLong 7.70% and NebiusLong 7.35%. For Nvidia stocks and Micron stocks alike, the weekly picture came through the day intact.
At the other end of the sector, Apple stockLong rose 1.11%, the only one of the seven largest names to gain, on the day a broker reaffirmed its positive rating; Apple stocks have now been on a weekly buy for four weeks. AdobeShort gained 3.56%, NetflixShort 2.68% and Palantir stockLong 2.40% after an upgrade to buy. Microsoft stockLong fell 1.35%, Amazon stockShort 2.25% and AlphabetShort 0.63%; MetaLong was little changed. US authorities suspended Microsoft and Adobe from a programme for permanent work visas.
Oil and energy: Eni stock up 2.66%, Exxon stock and Chevron stock higher, Marathon Petroleum and Valero gain more than 4.5%, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies rise
Crude oil rose 3.6%, with North Sea crude above 104 dollars according to market reports. The US president wrote that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections of 3 November, and the price went up regardless: attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue, and the risk to supply does not depend on statements.
The sector rose as one on both sides of the Atlantic. In New York Marathon PetroleumLong gained 4.77%, ValeroLong 4.65%, the US line of BPLong 4.16%, Chevron stockLong 3.12% and Exxon stockLong 2.71%. Among oil services, HalliburtonShort added 2.58% and SLBShort 2.13%, the latter with a digital drilling contract awarded by TotalEnergies; OccidentalShort rose 3.56% and ConocoPhillipsShort 3.35%. In Europe ShellLong gained 3.63% in London, TotalEnergiesLong 2.86% in Paris and Eni stockLong 2.66% in Milan, where it posted the best gain among the names we follow; TenarisLong added 1.32% and SaipemShort 0.57%. In Brazil Petrobras stockLong rose 3.13% in São Paulo and 2.92% on its New York line PBR.
Milan market: UniCredit stock down 3.08% and Intesa Sanpaolo stock 2.95% in a second day of bank selling, STMicroelectronics and Telecom Italia fall, Eni stock leads the gainers
The Milan market spent another session at the bottom of the European table: the FTSE MIB ETF lost 1.27% and touched its lowest level in 90 sessions. This time the spread between Italian and German government bonds is not the explanation: on our data it narrowed by 3.6% in the session, and according to market reports it closed just above 110 basis points. Banks were sold all the same, with consolidation in the sector as the backdrop ahead of the Monte dei Paschi shareholders' meeting on 29 October.
The sector fell as one for a second day. UniCredit stockShort lost 3.08%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 2.95%, Monte dei PaschiLong 2.88%, UnipolShort 2.60%, MediobancaLong 2.48%, BPERShort 2.21%, Banco BPMShort 2.01%, GeneraliShort 1.44%, FinecoBankShort 1.04%, NexiShort 0.79% and Poste ItalianeShort 0.67%; Banca MediolanumShort was unchanged. UniCredit stocks and Intesa Sanpaolo stocks have now fallen for two sessions running.
Outside financials, the semiconductor news did the damage. STMicroelectronics stockLong lost 3.75%, the largest fall among the Milan names we follow, and turned to sell on its daily signal. Telecom ItaliaShort gave up 3.63%, Stellantis stockShort 2.98% in the month the group is halting four French plants for lack of batteries, BuzziShort 2.86%, FincantieriShort 2.38%, PrysmianShort 1.61%, DiaSorinLong 1.57% and InwitLong 1.32%; FerrariLong slipped 0.68%, Leonardo stockShort 0.45% and MonclerShort 0.44%.
Energy and the grid operators were the gainers. Eni stockLong rose 2.66% with oil, and Eni stocks posted the best gain among the Milan names we follow; TenarisLong gained 1.32%, A2ALong 1.16%, SnamShort 1.01%, TernaShort 0.95%, ItalgasShort 0.94% and EnelShort 0.37%.
Tesco stock up 5.17% after lifting its guidance, Volkswagen stock down 4.50% and GSK stock 3.07%: in Europe Shell and TotalEnergies rise, banks, autos and health care fall
In London the best news came from TescoLong: the group raised the lower end of its full-year profit guidance and Tesco stock rose 5.17%. Oil lifted ShellLong, up 3.63%, and among defensives British American TobaccoShort gained 1.89%. Health care went the other way: GSK stockShort lost 3.07% on 3.2 times its normal volume and closed at its session low, and AstraZenecaShort fell 2.36%, with reports of a merger with a US drugmaker still unconfirmed. Banks kept falling: HSBC stockShort down 1.95%, LloydsShort 1.66% and Barclays stockShort 1.37%. According to market reports it is the worst two-session run for European banks since March. Rolls-RoyceLong gave up 2.66%; PrudentialShort rose 0.75%.
In Frankfurt Volkswagen stockShort lost 4.50% and closed at its session low, the largest fall among the German names we follow, with BMWShort down 2.76% and Mercedes-BenzShort 2.02%. The semiconductor news hit Infineon stockShort, down 3.36%; BayerShort fell 3.14%, SiemensShort 2.56%, SAP stockLong 1.60% and Deutsche Bank stockShort 0.65%. RheinmetallShort gained 0.94%.
In Paris TotalEnergiesLong rose 2.86% and Schneider ElectricShort 2.57% after three sessions of declines. The rest of the list fell: SafranShort 2.69%, KeringShort 2.57%, EssilorLuxotticaShort 2.49%, BNP Paribas stockShort 2.41%, Société Générale stockShort 2.25%, LegrandLong 2.23%, LVMHShort 1.94% and SanofiShort 1.23%.
PepsiCo stock up 3.73% after earnings, Starbucks and the Chipotle report, Caterpillar stock lower again: consumer staples rise, crypto miners and nuclear names fall
PepsiCoShort delivered the only earnings report of note: adjusted earnings per share of 2.34 dollars against 2.29 expected and revenue of 25.27 billion, up 5.6%, but with guidance for 2026 earnings growth cut to 2.5-3.5% from 5-7%. PepsiCo stock rose 3.73%. Other consumer names gained with it: Home DepotShort 3.39%, Coca-ColaShort 2.27%, WalmartShort 2.22%, DisneyLong 2.17% and Procter & GambleLong 1.87%.
For StarbucksShort the news is a press report: the group has reportedly spent recent months working with advisers on a proposal to acquire Chipotle, and neither company has commented. The shares closed 0.40% lower on 4.7 times their normal volume, near the session high. Caterpillar stockShort lost a further 2.17% after Wednesday's drop, on the day US authorities opened an inquiry into sales, parts and servicing of farm machinery. Rocket LabShort fell 4.89% despite a broker starting coverage with a positive rating.
Two groups fell together. Crypto miners lost ground even as bitcoin rebounded: Riot PlatformsShort down 9.17%, CleanSparkShort 7.73%, CipherShort 7.28% and MARALong 4.34%; CoinbaseLong fell 3.61% and StrategyLong 1.24%. Nuclear and uranium names kept sliding: NuScale PowerShort 4.56%, Uranium EnergyShort 3.48%, Energy FuelsShort 3.12% and CamecoShort 2.19%.
Petrobras stock up 3.13% with oil, EcoRodovias gains 7.16%, Vale stock falls: our Brazilian buy signals extend again
In São Paulo oil led the way: Petrobras stockLong rose 3.13%. EcoRodoviasLong gained 7.16%, SabespLong 4.09%, CosanLong 3.76% and LocalizaLong 3.28%. Banks moved little: Itaú UnibancoLong added 0.49%, Banco do BrasilLong 0.33%, and Bradesco stockLong slipped 1.76%. Vale stockShort lost 1.61% and closed near its session low, with iron ore lower as Chinese markets reopened.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF loses 1.27% and the DAX ETF turns its daily signal back to sell, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 limit the damage
On Thursday the four European indices fell again, and again by different amounts: the FTSE MIB ETFShort by 1.27%, the DAXShort fund by 1.20%, the CAC 40Short fund by 0.52% and the FTSE 100Short fund by 0.20%. In Frankfurt the daily buy signal lasted two sessions: the short-term signal is back on sell, with a close near the session low. That leaves all four baskets on sell on both the daily and the weekly chart.
On the weekly chart the distance from the level that would close the short has widened further: 5.02% for Milan, 4.04% for Frankfurt, 3.70% for Paris and 2.79% for London. The model's short is 7.81% in profit on the CAC 40, where it dates from 24 August, 5.29% on the FTSE MIB, on sell since 31 August, 2.04% on the DAX and 1.93% on the FTSE 100, both since 14 September. On the Italian basket the weekly level has dropped below the short's entry price: as of Thursday the trade is protected. In four sessions the price has reached the short's first target and touched the second, and the 200-day average is less than a point away.
This week's new buy signals: STMicroelectronics stock, Texas Instruments and Astera Labs with the daily signal on sell, Palo Alto Networks below its entry, Cosan the best of the nine
The 9 buy signals triggered on Friday 2 October have had their fourth session, and Wednesday's pullback has deepened: six of the nine are semiconductor or technology names, the very group hit by the OpenAI report. Astera LabsLong lost 9.21%, STMLong on its New York line 6.18%, STMicroelectronics stockLong in Milan 3.75%, Applied MaterialsLong 2.13%, Palo Alto NetworksLong 1.74%, the European technology ETF EXV3Long 0.46%, Texas InstrumentsLong 0.27% and CarnivalLong 0.08%. Only CosanLong rose, by 3.76%, and it is 27.18% above its signal; Carnival is still above its entry, by 1.44%.
On a Friday this card is limited to what has changed since Monday's full table. There are four changes: three names saw their daily signal turn to sell on Thursday, and two slipped below their entry price. That takes the names with the daily signal on sell to six of the nine, and those below their entry to seven. The weekly signal is confirmed on all nine, and the candle that closes tonight is not printing a sell on any of them so far. The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.
This week's earnings: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, Bank of America and BlackRock on Wednesday, Charles Schwab and TSMC on Thursday
Thirteen companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Delta Air LinesShort is due today. On Tuesday 13 October the US season opens with the banks, Goldman SachsShort, JPMorganShort, CitigroupShort and Wells FargoShort, alongside Johnson & JohnsonLong and UnitedHealthShort; Wednesday 14 brings Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort, and Thursday 15 Charles SchwabShort, Interactive BrokersShort, IridiumShort and TSMCLong.
Friday 9 October
Delta Air Lines Short
Tuesday 13 October
Goldman Sachs Short
JPMorgan Chase Short
Citigroup Short
Wells Fargo Short
Johnson & Johnson Long
UnitedHealth Short
Wednesday 14 October
Bank of America Short
BlackRock Short
Thursday 15 October
Charles Schwab Short
Interactive Brokers Short
Iridium Communications Short
TSMC Long
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: QQQ loses 1.34% and turns to sell on the daily chart, SPY tests its level and holds
QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 1.34% on volume 49% above its twenty-session average, and closed in the lowest third of its daily range. There are two consequences on the chart: the daily signal turned to sell, for the first time since 17 September, and the price fell back into the waiting zone it had left on Monday. The weekly signal remains on buy, and the level that governs it sits 3.22% below the price. SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, slipped 0.42% on volume 12% below average. During the session it dropped below its daily level and then closed 0.31% above it: the level was tested and it held. The weekly level sits 2.09% below the price, and Tuesday's all-time high is less than 1% away.
On targets the two remain at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, which sits well above the entry price. QQQ is in its eighth week with two windows still ahead, and its weekly level is still below the entry: the trade is not yet protected.
The big picture: the market changes the subject
For two weeks the market had one master, the cost of money. On Thursday it found a second: the estimate of OpenAI's revenue cast doubt on the spending that underpins the whole semiconductor supply chain, and the Nasdaq 100 lost its short-term signal while the S&P 500 kept its own. On rates there was a truce, with a well-received US thirty-year auction and a narrower spread between Italian and German bonds, yet European banks were sold all the same and Milan finished at the bottom again. Oil took centre stage and energy was the best sector on both sides of the Atlantic. Our model goes into the weekly close long energy since July and technology since August, and short European banks, autos, European health care and the four European indices. The weekly candle closes tonight: it settles the sell and buy signals that are still provisional, and tells us whether the Nasdaq 100 ends the week above its level.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).