ETF and stock technical analysis: the European banks ETF falls 3.33%, the FTSE MIB ETF 2.42% and UniCredit stock loses 4.18% in Milan
On Wednesday 7 October government bond yields started climbing again, and ETFs show who paid for it. The European banks ETF EXV1 lost 3.33% on more than thirty times its normal volume, and the FTSE MIB ETF MIB fell 2.42%: the Milan market was the weakest in Europe as the spread between Italian and German bonds widened sharply. The DAX ETF DAX gave up 1.36% and the CAC 40 ETF CAC 1.31%. In the United States the damage was far smaller: the S&P 500 ETF SPY closed down 0.24% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ down 0.25%, while the industrials ETF XLI lost 2.18% and the gold ETF GLD 1.67%. Only one sector rose, health care, with the US health care ETF XLV up 1.03%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan, UniCredit stock fell 4.18%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 4.04% on the day it raised its bid for Monte dei Paschi, Monte dei Paschi 3.89%, Prysmian 4.68% and STMicroelectronics 4.07%, while Stellantis rose 1.36% and Eni 0.41%. On Wall Street, Micron stock gained 4.06% after a price target increase and Moderna stock 4.81%, while Caterpillar stock dropped 5.75% on a downgrade and Meta stock 2.38%. In Paris Société Générale fell 5.01%, and in London HSBC 4.36%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names: short UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, on sell since last week, short Prysmian, 7.96% in profit, Telecom Italia, 19.39%, Leonardo, 12.98%, Société Générale, 16.00%, Caterpillar, 7.55%, the European banks ETF EXV1 and the four European indices through the FTSE MIB, DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 ETFs; long Micron, 11.56% in profit, Moderna, 35.38%, Eni, 5.55%, and the two US ETFs, SPY on the S&P 500 and QQQ on the Nasdaq 100.
- ETF technical analysis: European banks, industrials, health care, gold
- Milan and the spread: UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Monte dei Paschi
- Wall Street: Caterpillar, semiconductor stocks, Micron, Moderna
- Europe: Société Générale, HSBC, Shell
- Brazil: Bradesco, Itaú, Petrobras
- European indices: Milan back on sell in the short term
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the European banks ETF drops with the spread, the industrials ETF loses more than 2%, the health care ETF is the only one to rise and the gold ETF falls again
An ETF is a basket of securities listed on an exchange: one order buys the whole basket, and the basket tracks an index, a sector or a commodity. On a day like Wednesday, when there is one piece of news and it weighs differently from one market to the next, baskets are the quickest way to see where the blow landed.
It landed where balance sheets hold the most government debt. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, lost 3.33% on more than thirty times its normal volume and closed near its session low. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS, the FTSE MIB ETF, fell 2.42%. Our model is on sell on both, and on Wednesday the daily signal turned back to sell as well. Among European sectors, EXV6, the basic resources ETF, lost 2.02%, EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF, 1.96%, and EXH4, the European industrials ETF, 1.83%. Two held up: EXV4, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS, the European health care ETF, gained 1.86%, and EXV2, the European telecoms ETF, 1.49%. EXHG, the European autos ETF, slipped 0.23% and EXH9, the European utilities ETF, 0.86%.
In the United States the cost of money hit the sectors that depend on it most. XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, the US industrials ETF, lost 2.18% after its heaviest holding was downgraded; XLB, the Materials Select Sector SPDR, the materials ETF, fell 1.51% and XLRE, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, the US real estate ETF, 1.29%. The model is on sell on all three and the short is in profit: 5.25% on industrials, 2.02% on materials, 7.65% on real estate. XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, gave up 0.48%, with the short 3.78% ahead. Utilities, consumer staples and consumer discretionary, that is XLU, XLP and XLY, closed within a third of a point of unchanged, all three on sell.
The only shelter was health care: XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, gained 1.03%, and the model's long, in place since 26 May, is 12.94% in profit. Gold protected nobody: GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, lost 1.67% as the dollar rose, and the model's short, opened on 21 September, moves to a gain of 4.46%.
Technology held up better than might have been expected. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, slipped 0.30%, VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, 0.33%, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, 0.33%, and QDVE, the European-listed fund on S&P 500 technology, 0.18%. The model has been on buy on all four since 10 August, with gains between 5.56% and 9.95%. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, lost 1.12% and stays 1.77% above its entry; MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, eased 0.28% and is 10.13% in profit. In energy, XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, fell 0.61% with the long 9.85% ahead, VDE, Vanguard Energy, 0.62%, and EXH1, the European oil and gas ETF, 0.53% with the long 4.03% ahead. The full ETF technical analysis, covering every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad index ETFs, family by family. Alongside sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the large baskets, the ones that end up in long-term portfolios.
US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, slipped 0.24% and is 14.39% above the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are 14.38% and 14.35% ahead. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, on buy since 3 August, closed unchanged and are 1.67% and 2.80% in profit. On the total market the signal has been on sell since 14 September and the session trimmed the short's loss, which stays between 1.49% and 1.96%: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and IWV, iShares Russell 3000, lost between 0.35% and 0.44%. On IWB, iShares Russell 1000, the weekly candle in progress is still printing a buy signal, provisional until Friday; ITOT and IWV, which had it on Tuesday, no longer do. At the other end, IWM, iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, lost 1.29% and takes the model's short to a gain of 6.19%.
Developed markets ETFs outside the United States. Here the session was felt in full, with declines between 1.08% and 1.23%. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, lost 1.20%, alongside VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity: on all five the sell signal was born last week and is now in profit, between 0.72% and 1.22%. On sell since 14 September are VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, 3.00% ahead, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, 1.83%, and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, 2.00%. Still on buy are IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, 3.91% in profit, which on Wednesday closed just below its weekly level, and VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, 10.11% in profit.
Emerging markets and Japan ETFs. Emerging markets lost a little more than a point and the daily signal turned to sell on all four: VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, down 1.27%, SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, 1.26%, SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, 1.23%, and IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, 1.22%. The weekly signal remains on buy, with a margin of around 1% for the first three. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, gave up 1.05% and is back at its entry price.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, slipped 0.32%, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, 0.29%, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, 0.28%. They have been on sell since 8 September and all three are in profit, by 1.02%, 2.44% and 0.12%.
Milan market and the BTP-Bund spread: UniCredit stock down 4.18%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock lower on the day of its raised bid for Monte dei Paschi, Prysmian and STMicroelectronics fall, Stellantis and Eni rise
The Milan market was the weakest in Europe: the FTSE MIB ETF lost 2.42%, almost twice as much as the German basket. The reason lies in the spread between Italian and German government bonds, which according to market reports widened by about 10 basis points to 117 while the German bond stood still: Italian banks hold the very bond that was losing value. On the same day the banking association rejected the idea of a new levy on the sector in the budget law, so the fiscal question stays open.
The sector fell as one. UniCredit stockShort lost 4.18%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 4.04%, Banca MediolanumShort 3.90%, Monte dei PaschiLong 3.89%, BPERShort 3.69%, Poste ItalianeShort 3.06%, MediobancaLong 2.72%, AzimutLong 2.70%, Banco BPMShort 2.52%, FinecoBankShort 2.48%, UnipolShort 2.28% and GeneraliShort 1.37%. Among Italian bank shares, UniCredit stocks and Intesa Sanpaolo stocks were the heaviest drag on the index. Inside the decline sits a corporate event: Intesa Sanpaolo raised its offer for Monte dei Paschi to 31.4 billion euros, adding 0.25 euros in cash per share. Azimut reported net inflows of 683 million euros in September and 10.9 billion year to date. NexiShort was flat.
Outside financials, technology and industrial names weighed: PrysmianShort down 4.68%, ENAVShort 4.67%, STMicroelectronics stockLong 4.07% on profit-taking across the sector and reports of a European tax on technology companies, MFEShort 3.64%, Telecom ItaliaShort 3.22%, Leonardo stockShort 2.57%, FincantieriShort 2.21% and AvioShort 2.08%. EnelShort gave up 1.24% and TenarisLong 1.50%.
Few names rose. Stellantis stockShort gained 1.36% on reports of a temporary European cap on imports of Chinese hybrids, InwitLong 1.87%, CampariLong 0.49%, Eni stockLong 0.41% with North Sea crude above 100 dollars, and SaipemShort 0.11%. FerrariLong closed unchanged.
Caterpillar stock down 5.75% as industrials drop with yields at their highest since 2002; semiconductor stocks split as Micron stock gains 4.06%, Moderna and health care rise, nuclear and crypto names fall
The US ten-year yield touched 5.36% and the thirty-year 5.73%, the highest since 2002, on the day the minutes of the central bank's September meeting were released, the meeting that delivered the first rate increase since 2023. The indices lost little. Underneath, the market sold what depends on credit. Caterpillar stockShort dropped 5.75% after a downgrade, followed by GE VernovaShort, down 3.12%, EatonShort, 3.09%, HoneywellShort, 2.24%, and GE AerospaceShort, 1.86%. Defence fell together, with Lockheed MartinShort down 2.14%, Northrop GrummanShort 2.00% and RTXShort 1.65%.
The best corporate news came from memory chips, and it split semiconductor stocks in two. Micron stockLong rose 4.06% after a broker lifted its price target to 3,000 dollars from 2,100, arguing that demand for artificial intelligence memory will outstrip supply until 2028; Micron stocks have now gained for a second week. SandiskLong added 1.92% while Western DigitalShort lost 1.37%. The rest of the group fell: Texas InstrumentsLong 2.78%, ArmLong 2.71%, QualcommLong 2.16%, TSMCLong 2.09%, MarvellLong 0.81%, Nvidia stockLong 0.74% and AMD stockLong 0.55%. IntelLong recovered 0.55%. According to the financial press, a large aerospace group is seeking 40 billion dollars of debt to fund an order for Nvidia chips: a sign that artificial intelligence spending is starting to run through the bond market.
Among the largest names, Amazon stockShort gained 1.42%, Apple stockLong 0.91% and AlphabetShort 0.81%; Microsoft stockLong was flat, Tesla stockLong slipped 0.75% and Meta stockLong 2.38%, with no news of its own. CrowdStrikeLong lost 4.81% on profit-taking after eight straight gains. SpotifyShort was among the best, up 5.08%, after announcing that audiobooks will expand from 22 to more than 180 markets by year end. CostcoShort, up 0.70%, reported September sales growth of 13% after the close.
Health care was the only sector higher. Moderna stockLong gained 4.81% ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 from Friday 9 October, Eli LillyShort 2.70%, AmgenShort 2.60%, Intuitive SurgicalLong 2.41%, PfizerLong 1.82% after US regulators approved a breast cancer therapy, AbbVieLong 1.75% and Johnson & JohnsonLong 1.44%.
Two groups fell together without company news. Nuclear and uranium names gave back Tuesday's rally: Energy FuelsShort down 8.88%, NuScale PowerShort 4.36%, CamecoShort 4.25%, along with rare earths, MP MaterialsShort 4.57% and USA Rare EarthShort 3.71%. Crypto-linked companies followed bitcoin lower: StrategyLong 6.79%, CoinbaseLong 3.92% and RobinhoodLong 2.22%. Among airlines, United AirlinesShort lost 1.52% after price target cuts tied to fuel costs, and Delta Air LinesShort, which reports on Friday, 0.82%.
Société Générale stock down 5.01%, HSBC stock lower on reported job cuts, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas fall; Shell flat on record refining margins, Sanofi, Orange and AstraZeneca rise
In France the risk premium is moving for reasons of its own: parliament has opened the debate on the 2027 budget law, and the gap between French and German government bond yields widened in a single session. Banks amplified the move. Société Générale stockShort lost 5.01% and BNP Paribas stockShort 3.88%. Also lower were LegrandLong, down 4.89%, Saint-GobainShort, 3.54%, ThalesShort, 2.74%, Schneider ElectricShort, 2.28% in its third session of declines, and VinciShort, 1.14%. Against the trend, SanofiShort rose 1.70% after a broker pointed to a possible slight increase in guidance, and OrangeShort 1.32% on a reaffirmed positive rating.
In London the heaviest news concerns HSBCShort: according to the British press, the bank will cut about half of its managerial and specialist roles to shift work to artificial intelligence. HSBC stock lost 4.36% on a day when the sector was falling anyway: PrudentialShort down 4.67% with no news, Barclays stockShort 3.41% and LloydsShort 3.22%. ShellLong published a third-quarter update with a record refining margin, 42 dollars a barrel against 24, and closed almost unchanged. GlencoreShort slipped 0.80% after the Congolese regulator challenged payments to ineligible subcontractors. Defensives rose: British American TobaccoShort 2.13%, AstraZenecaShort 1.86% and UnileverLong 1.18%. Rolls-RoyceLong lost 2.35%.
In Germany Mercedes-BenzShort reported third-quarter unit sales down 6%, with China down 31%, and closed 2.14% lower; VolkswagenShort rose 1.25%. Infineon stockShort lost 5.77% on the day the group announced a cooperation on quantum chips: market reports put the decline down to profit-taking across the sector. Deutsche Bank stockShort gave up 4.94%, RheinmetallShort 2.81%, SiemensShort 2.80% and SAP stockLong 0.52%. Deutsche TelekomShort gained 2.20%.
Bradesco stock down 3.50% and Itaú lower with US yields, Petrobras stock higher after joining the diesel subsidy: the Brazilian market keeps its October gains
São Paulo followed the European script: banks paid for US yields and a stronger dollar. Bradesco stockLong lost 3.50%, on 3.1 times its normal volume and a close near the session low, on the day the bank approved 3.8 billion reais of interest on equity; ItaúsaLong gave up 3.26%, Itaú UnibancoLong 2.66% and Banco do BrasilLong 1.87%. CyrelaLong fell 3.45% and ValeShort 2.30%, its third session of declines.
Against the trend, Petrobras stockLong rose 1.25% in São Paulo and 0.80% on its New York line PBRLong, after the group signed up to the government's diesel subsidy. LocalizaLong gained 1.36% and CosanLong 1.00%; QualicorpShort added 8.56%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF loses 2.42% and turns its daily signal back to sell, the DAX ETF keeps it, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 stay on sell on both horizons
On Wednesday the four European indices fell together, by very different amounts: the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort by 2.42%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort by 1.36%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort by 1.31% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort by 0.76%. In Milan the daily buy signal born on Tuesday lasted one session: the short-term signal is back on sell, with a close near the session low. Frankfurt keeps it; Paris and London were already on sell.
On the weekly chart the distance from the level that would close the short has widened: 4.29% for Milan, 3.44% for Paris, 3.33% for Frankfurt and 2.73% for London. The model's short is 7.32% in profit on the CAC 40, where it was born on 24 August, 4.07% on the FTSE MIB, on sell since 31 August, 1.74% on the FTSE 100 and 0.85% on the DAX. The Italian basket sits 7.62% below its all-time high and closed at its lowest level in 60 sessions.
This week's new buy signals: STMicroelectronics stock, Texas Instruments and the European technology ETF below their entry, Applied Materials with the daily signal on sell, Cosan higher
The 9 buy signals born on Friday 2 October have had their third session, and it is the first in which the group pulls back. Eight of the nine fell: STMLong on its New York line by 4.33%, STMicroelectronics stockLong in Milan by 4.07%, Palo Alto NetworksLong by 3.42%, Texas InstrumentsLong by 2.78%, the European technology ETF EXV3Long by 1.96%, Astera LabsLong by 1.94%, Applied MaterialsLong by 1.81% and CarnivalLong by 1.62%. Only CosanLong rose, by 1.00%, and it is 22.57% above its signal; Astera Labs is still 9.11% ahead.
Midweek, this card is limited to what has changed since Monday's full table. Today there are five changes. Three names have seen their daily signal turn to sell, and four have slipped below their entry price. The weekly signal is confirmed on all nine. The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.
This week's earnings: PepsiCo, Tesco and Tilray today, Delta on Friday, then JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, BlackRock, Schwab and TSMC
Fourteen companies in our universe report by next Thursday. Today it is the turn of PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort, on Friday 9 Delta Air LinesShort. On Tuesday 13 the US season opens with JPMorganShort, Goldman SachsShort, CitigroupShort and Wells FargoShort, together with Johnson & JohnsonLong and UnitedHealthShort; on Wednesday 14 come Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort, on Thursday 15 Charles SchwabShort and TSMCLong.
Thursday 8 October
PepsiCo Short
Tesco Long
Tilray Brands Short
Friday 9 October
Delta Air Lines Short
Tuesday 13 October
JPMorgan Chase Short
Goldman Sachs Short
Citigroup Short
Wells Fargo Short
Johnson & Johnson Long
UnitedHealth Short
Wednesday 14 October
Bank of America Short
BlackRock Short
Thursday 15 October
Charles Schwab Short
TSMC Long
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: both baskets fill Tuesday's price gap and close back above their old ceiling
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.24% the day after its first all-time high since August. It opened lower, filled the whole of the price gap left on Tuesday and then recovered, finishing in the upper part of its daily range. The price sits 0.74% above its daily level and 2.42% above the weekly one, on volume 33% below the twenty-session average. QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, fell 0.25% with the same pattern: a lower open, the gap filled, a close near the session high, 0.98% above its daily level and 3.77% above the weekly one. Volume was below average here too, by 24%.
On both, the price returned during the session to the ceiling of the old congestion zone and left it again: it is the third consecutive close above that level. On targets the two remain at opposite stages: SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, while QQQ is in its eighth week with two windows still ahead.
The big picture: one piece of news, three different bills
On Tuesday yields had paused and markets had breathed. On Wednesday they set off again, to their highest levels since 2002 in the United States, and the same news produced three different bills: a quarter of a point on Wall Street, a little over a point in Paris and Frankfurt, two and a half points in Milan, where the spread widened and banks lost 4%. Beneath the US indices the picture is less calm than it looks: industrials, materials, real estate and small caps fell far more than the basket, and health care was the only sector higher. Our model arrives here on buy on US large caps, technology and health care, and on sell on European banks, industrials, financials and the four European indices. The shorts on Italian banks, born a week ago, moved back into profit in a single session: Friday's close is the test.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).