ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 2.60%, the energy ETF gains 1.43%, Meta stock rises 3.38%, Micron stock drops 3.88% and Campari stock climbs 2.99% in Milan
On Monday 12 October the index stood still while the market moved underneath it, and ETFs make that visible. The S&P 500 ETF SPY closed 0.06% lower, half a point from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ lost 0.70%. The semiconductor ETF SOXX fell 2.60% after an announcement by a Chinese memory maker, and the US technology ETF XLK gave up 1.22%. On the other side, the energy ETF XLE rose 1.43% with oil, the consumer staples ETF XLP 1.17% and the European banks ETF EXV1 1.45%. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB gained 0.53%: the Milan market rose with the banks, while the gold ETF GLD slipped 0.63%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan, Campari stock gained 2.99%, A2A stock 2.29% and Intesa Sanpaolo stock 1.11%, while STMicroelectronics stock lost 2.11% and Stellantis stock 0.84%. On Wall Street Meta stock climbed 3.38% and Shopify stock 4.90%, while Micron stock fell 3.88%, Nvidia stock 1.29% and IonQ stock 9.07%; Apple stock added 1.29% and Exxon stock 1.90%. In Frankfurt RWE stock gained 2.28%, and in London HSBC stock 2.34%.
Our model was on the right side of both of the day's moves. It has been long energy since July: the XLE ETF is 14.44% in profit, Chevron 14.74%, Exxon 9.69%, Eni 10.65% and Shell 18.54%. On the most fragile names in the market it was short: Western Digital is 28.21% in profit, D-Wave 31.61%, NuScale 31.35%, Enphase 42.32% and Energy Fuels 17.44%. Among the largest companies the long on Meta moves to 14.65% and the one on Microsoft to 16.45%; in Milan the short on Stellantis is 32.63% ahead and the one on Telecom Italia 24.24%. On the four European indices the model remains on sell, through the FTSE MIB, DAX, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 ETFs, and on buy on the two US ETFs, SPY and QQQ.
- ETF technical analysis: semiconductors, energy, European banks, gold, the broad index funds
- Semiconductor and big tech stocks: Micron, Nvidia, Meta, Shopify, Apple
- Energy and defensive stocks: Exxon, Chevron, Coca-Cola, banks before earnings
- High-volatility stocks: IonQ, D-Wave, NuScale, Fastly
- Milan market: Campari, A2A, Intesa Sanpaolo, Stellantis, STMicroelectronics
- Europe: HSBC, RWE, Rheinmetall, LVMH
- European indices: the short term turns on three baskets
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF and the technology ETF fall, the energy ETF and the consumer staples ETF rise, the European banks ETF bounces, the gold ETF slips
An ETF is a listed basket: a single order buys a whole index, a sector or a commodity at whatever price the market is making at that moment. On Monday the baskets told the story better than the index did, which closed unchanged while nine of eleven US sectors rose and only one lost more than a point.
That sector was technology, and within technology it was chips. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the most widely followed semiconductor ETF, lost 2.60% and closed near its low: a fifth straight losing session, according to press reports. The model's long, opened on 21 September, is 4.86% below its entry and keeps a margin of 1.80% over the weekly level. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gave up 1.22%, VGT, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, the Vanguard ETF for the sector, 1.15%, and FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology ETF, 1.13%: all three have been on buy since 10 August and remain more than three points in profit. MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, held up with a gain of 0.28% and is 10.57% ahead; QDVE, the European-listed fund on S&P 500 technology, lost 0.46% and remains 7.85% in profit.
The money that left chips went to the sectors that pay when oil rises and rates stay high. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, rose 1.43%, and the long opened on 13 July is 14.44% in profit. VDE, the Vanguard Energy ETF, added 1.36%. XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, gained 1.17% and closed at its high. Also higher were XLC, the communication services ETF, up 0.97%, XLRE, the real estate ETF, up 0.75%, XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, up 0.69% with a long that is 15.07% ahead, XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, up 0.58% on the eve of bank earnings, and XLU, the utilities ETF, up 0.53%. XLB on materials and XLI on industrials were flat; XLY, the consumer discretionary ETF, lost 0.51%. On staples, utilities and the Vanguard energy fund the published signal is still sell, and the current weekly candle, which is one day old, is turning towards buy: that is settled on Friday, when the candle closes.
In Europe the banks led. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS ETF, the European banks ETF, rose 1.45% after a difficult month; the model has been on sell since 28 September and the short is still 0.91% in profit. EXH9, the European utilities ETF, gained 1.24% and closed at its high, EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS ETF, the European oil and gas ETF, 0.78% with a long that is 8.30% ahead, EXV4, the European health care ETF, 0.73%, EXH4, the European industrials ETF, 0.68%, which turned its daily signal back to buy, EXV6, the basic resources ETF, 0.34%, while EXHG, the European autos ETF, was unchanged on trading far above normal and closed near its low. Lower were EXV3, the European technology ETF, down 0.34%, and EXV2, the European telecoms ETF, down 0.44%, where the short is 3.37% ahead. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF, the FTSE MIB ETF, rose 0.53%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the world's most heavily traded gold ETF, lost 0.63% as the dollar rose: the weekly short opened on 21 September is 2.86% in profit. The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad index ETFs, family by family. Alongside sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the big baskets, the ones that go into savings plans and long-term portfolios. In a flat session the margins matter more than the changes.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, the world's most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF, closed 0.06% lower and is 14.52% ahead of the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF, are 14.53% and 14.46% in profit. OEF, the iShares S&P 100 ETF, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF, are 1.51% and 2.32% ahead. IWV, the iShares Russell 3000 ETF, and IWB, the iShares Russell 1000 ETF, are the two total-market funds that returned to buy with Friday's close: on their first session they were flat, just below entry. On the other four, VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, the Vanguard ETF on the whole US market, ITOT, the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF, SCHB, the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF, and SPTM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 ETF, the published signal is sell and the current candle is turning towards buy: Friday decides here too. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the small-cap ETF, lost 0.37%, and the model's short is 6.12% in profit.
Developed markets outside the United States. With the dollar higher, all of them fell: VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, down 0.57%, VEU, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF, 0.40%, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF, 0.45%, IXUS, the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF, 0.44%, SPDW, the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF, 0.58%, and SCHF, the Schwab International Equity ETF, 0.51%. The model is on sell on all six, with the shorts between half a point and a point and a half in profit. On sell since 14 September are VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF, 2.71% ahead, IEFA, the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF, 1.85%, and IDEV, the iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF, 1.75%. Still on buy is VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, the global equity ETF, 10.02% ahead since 6 April, with its margin over the weekly level down to 0.61%.
Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, the Vanguard emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF, closed almost unchanged and remain in profit; SPEM, the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF, and IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which lost 0.95%, are just below entry. The four buys have narrow margins, and VWO's is the thinnest at 0.25%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF, the Japan ETF, gave up 0.55% and keeps a margin of 2.46%.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, the Vanguard dividend ETF, gained 0.41%, DGRO, the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF, 0.65%, closing at its high, and USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF, 0.20%. These are the funds that benefited from the rotation into defensive stocks: the published signal has been sell since 8 September, and on all three the current candle is turning towards buy.
Semiconductor stocks: Micron stock down 3.88%, Nvidia stock down 1.29% and Sandisk down 5.97% after the CXMT announcement; Meta stock up 3.38% on its new models, Shopify stock up 4.90%, Apple and Microsoft higher
Over the weekend, at an industry event in Shanghai, the Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies announced a new server memory product due by the end of 2026, built on a cell architecture that one research firm estimates could raise density by 30% to 50%. The company published no specifications, yields or customer qualifications: the market priced a threat, in stocks that had come a very long way.
SandiskLong lost 5.97%, Micron stockLong 3.88% and Western DigitalShort 2.60%. The selling spread to the rest of the chip sector: ArmLong down 4.15%, MarvellLong 3.42%, IntelLong 3.20%, AMD stockLong 2.28%, TSMCLong 1.98%, closing at its low three days before earnings, BroadcomShort 1.88%, Applied MaterialsLong 1.87% and Nvidia stockLong 1.29%. Along the supply chain the heaviest price was paid by Credo TechnologyLong, down 7.25% with no news of its own; Astera LabsLong gave up 5.29% after a broker downgrade and Super MicroLong 4.48%, since the cost of memory is the most sensitive line for anyone assembling servers.
The largest companies went the other way. Meta stockLong rose 3.38%, its best session in two weeks, after releasing a new family of artificial intelligence models that the company describes as competitive with the most advanced rivals; earnings are confirmed for 28 October. Apple stockLong gained 1.29% and Microsoft stockLong 1.14%. Shopify stockLong climbed 4.90% after three brokers raised their price targets, SalesforceShort 2.09% on an upgrade, AccentureLong 2.78%, SnapLong 4.82% and RobloxLong 3.10%. Cybersecurity gave back part of Friday's rally: CrowdStrikeLong down 4.37%, Palo Alto NetworksLong 3.57%, ZscalerLong 3.40%, CloudflareLong 2.79%, SnowflakeLong 2.31% and DatadogLong 2.04%. Amazon stockShort lost 1.11% and TeslaLong 1.22%; PalantirLong closed unchanged after a new intraday high, and CiscoLong slipped 2.58%.
Exxon stock up 1.90% and Chevron stock up 1.42% with oil, Coca-Cola up 1.98% and Procter & Gamble up 1.30%: the rotation into energy and defensive stocks, with US banks on the eve of earnings
Oil was the session's second engine: on our data US crude rose 3.2%. According to press reports Russia is still striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite the truce announced by Washington, and Saudi Arabia came under a new round of attacks. Exxon stockLong gained 1.90%, ConocoPhillipsShort 2.58%, closing at its high, Kinder MorganShort 1.82%, OccidentalShort 1.70% and Chevron stockLong 1.42%. The other side of that coin is the airlines: United AirlinesShort lost 2.81% and DeltaShort 2.51%, after a quarterly report in which fuel costs forced a cut to full-year guidance.
The other leg was consumer staples. Coca-ColaShort rose 1.98%, WalmartShort 1.55%, CostcoShort 1.32% and Procter & GambleLong 1.30%, all closing near their highs. In health care AbbVieLong added 1.68% and BiogenLong 1.64%, while Bristol-Myers SquibbShort gave up 2.60% after a downgrade. The two large phone carriers recovered part of Friday's collapse: VerizonShort up 2.71% and AT&TShort up 1.40%.
Earnings season starts today with the banks. On Monday CitigroupShort rose 1.76% and closed at its high, Bank of AmericaShort 0.48% and JPMorganShort 0.39%; Goldman SachsShort and Wells FargoShort closed just below unchanged. On rates there was a hawkish contribution: a US central bank official said policy must stay restrictive and described price pressures as broad-based. September inflation is out on Wednesday.
IonQ stock down 9.07% after an all-stock acquisition, D-Wave and Rigetti lower, NuScale down 6.94%, Fastly down 9.80%: the most volatile stocks fall together
Beneath a flat index the most volatile stocks had a heavy session. The largest fall among the better-known names was IonQLong, down 9.07%: the company agreed to buy a cybersecurity firm for up to 1.3 billion dollars, paid entirely in shares, and the market read the deal as dilution. The effect spread to the other quantum computing names, which do not share that risk: Quantum ComputingShort down 6.85%, D-WaveShort 5.70% and RigettiShort 5.56%.
The same pattern showed up in nuclear and uranium, with NuScaleShort down 6.94%, Uranium EnergyShort 3.92%, Energy FuelsShort 3.01% and CamecoShort 2.20%; in hydrogen and solar, with FuelCell EnergyShort down 9.21%, EnphaseShort 4.02% and Plug PowerShort 3.57%; and in rare earths, with MP MaterialsShort down 6.03% and USA Rare EarthShort 5.89%. FastlyLong lost 9.80% with no news of its own, after Friday's sharp gain; RecursionLong 8.03%, Bloom EnergyLong 6.50% on profit-taking and AppLovinShort 2.23% after two price-target cuts.
Milan stocks: Campari stock up 2.99%, A2A stock up 2.29%, Intesa Sanpaolo and Monte dei Paschi higher on consolidation, Stellantis stock lower, STMicroelectronics stock down 2.11%
The Milan stock market rose for a second session: the FTSE MIB ETF gained 0.53%, and according to press reports the index is back above 50,000. The spread between Italian and German government bonds widened by 1.0% on our data. Campari stockLong was the best performer among the blue chips, up 2.99%, ahead of AvioShort, up 2.75%, Nexi stockShort, up 2.47%, and A2A stockLong, up 2.29% and closing at its high.
The underlying push came from the banks, where the theme is still consolidation. BPER stockShort rose 2.18%, Monte dei Paschi stockShort 1.36%, MediobancaShort 1.31%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort and Generali stockShort 1.11%, Poste ItalianeShort 1.00%, Banco BPM stockShort 0.88% and UniCredit stockShort 0.16%. According to the financial press, Monte dei Paschi held an extraordinary board meeting while Intesa Sanpaolo said it was ready to improve its offer; a shareholder advisory firm recommended voting for the merger with Mediobanca, and the meeting of 29 October remains the event that decides the outcome for four stocks in the index. InwitLong gained 1.78% on more than three times normal volume, on unconfirmed reports of a possible offer from its core shareholders.
With oil, Saipem stockLong rose 1.68%, TenarisLong 1.01% and Eni stockLong 0.77%; also higher were Leonardo stockShort, up 1.77% and closing at its high, MonclerShort, up 1.31%, ItalgasShort, up 1.10%, Ferrari stockShort, up 0.91%, and Enel stockShort, up 0.58%. On the other side, STMicroelectronics stockLong lost 2.11% with semiconductors worldwide, closing near its low; MFEShort gave up 2.16%, AmplifonLong 1.63%, AzimutShort 1.36%, Telecom Italia stockShort 1.21%, Stellantis stockShort 0.84%, on a day when the press reported that a new model is being studied for the Mirafiori plant, and PrysmianShort 0.61%. Unipol began its capital increase with the rights trading separately: Monday's change is not comparable with earlier sessions, and we do not report it.
HSBC stock up 2.34% and Lloyds up 2.36% in London, RWE stock up 2.28% and Rheinmetall up 2.46% in Frankfurt, Hermès higher in Paris: LVMH reports revenue after the market close
London was the best market, with the banks in front: HSBC stockShort rose 2.34%, LloydsShort 2.36%, closing at its high, and BarclaysShort 1.85%. Outside banking, DiageoShort gained 2.14%, Tesco stockLong 1.43%, closing at its high, UnileverLong 1.38%, BAE SystemsShort 1.21%, GSKShort 1.20%, ShellLong 1.12% and Rolls-RoyceShort 0.75%.
In Frankfurt the best of the large names was RheinmetallShort, up 2.46%, followed by RWE stockLong, up 2.28% and closing at its high, SAP stockLong, up 1.57%, SiemensShort, up 1.34%, Deutsche BankShort, up 1.24%, and Deutsche TelekomShort, up 1.13% as it recovered from Friday's collapse. The losses were concentrated in chips and autos: InfineonShort fell 2.79%, Mercedes-BenzShort 0.82% and BMWShort 0.38%.
In Paris HermèsShort rose 2.10%, ThalesShort 1.97%, Société GénéraleShort 1.79%, DanoneShort 1.02%, KeringShort 0.80% and TotalEnergiesLong 0.57%; Schneider ElectricShort slipped 0.39%. The day's event came after the close: LVMHShort, which had gained 1.18% in the session, reported third-quarter revenue of 18.5 billion euros, with organic growth of 1%. There are two stories inside that figure: fashion and leather goods, the largest division, fell 5%, watches and jewellery grew 6%, and China remains the weak spot. The reaction shows up in today's session.
European indices: the FTSE 100 ETF rises 0.97% and the DAX ETF 0.77%, the daily signal returns to buy in London, Frankfurt and Paris; the FTSE MIB ETF stays on sell on both horizons
On Monday the four European indices rose again: the FTSE 100Short ETF by 0.97%, closing at its high, the DAX ETFShort by 0.77%, the FTSE MIB ETFShort by 0.53% and the CAC 40Short ETF by 0.32%. On three of the four the daily signal returned to buy: London, Frankfurt and Paris. Milan is the only one still on sell in the short term as well.
On the weekly chart the distance from the level that would close the sell is 0.85% for London, 2.16% for Frankfurt, 2.26% for Paris and 3.25% for Milan. The model's short is 6.59% in profit on the French basket, on sell since 24 August, 3.96% on the Italian one, since 31 August, and around break-even on the German and British baskets, both since 14 September.
This week's new buy signals: Shopify and Saipem start above entry, Credo Technology below, the four Brazilian stocks idle with São Paulo closed
The weekend analysis published 14 new buy signals, confirmed by the close of Friday 9 October: Credo TechnologyLong, Constellation EnergyLong, Royal CaribbeanLong, ShopifyLong, CiscoLong, Quanta ServicesLong, the two total US market ETFs IWBLong and IWVLong, in Milan AmplifonLong and SaipemLong, and four Brazilian stocks, GafisaLong, QualicorpLong, AmbevLong and Lojas RennerLong. It is a different group from the previous week's, which was almost all semiconductors: here there are networks, power generation, cruise lines, oil services and Brazil.
From Tuesday to Friday this section reports only what changes. On the first session there are three changes: two stocks that started above their entry price and one below. The four Brazilian names had no session, because the São Paulo exchange was closed on Monday.
This week's earnings: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs today, Bank of America on Wednesday, TSMC on Thursday, Netflix on Tuesday 20
19 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. The season opens today with the banks, JPMorganShort, CitigroupShort, Wells FargoShort and Goldman SachsShort, along with Johnson & JohnsonShort and UnitedHealthShort; on Wednesday 14 it is the turn of Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort, and on Thursday 15 TSMCLong, Charles SchwabShort, Interactive BrokersShort and IridiumShort. On Tuesday 20 come NetflixShort, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, HalliburtonShort and United AirlinesShort. US inflation for September is also out on Wednesday.
Tuesday 13 October
JPMorgan Chase Short
Citigroup Short
Wells Fargo Short
Goldman Sachs Short
Johnson & Johnson Short
UnitedHealth Short
Wednesday 14 October
Bank of America Short
BlackRock Short
Thursday 15 October
TSMC Long
Charles Schwab Short
Interactive Brokers Short
Iridium Communications Short
Tuesday 20 October
Netflix Short
GE Aerospace Short
RTX Short
Northrop Grumman Short
Intuitive Surgical Long
Halliburton Short
United Airlines Short
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY closes 0.06% lower inside Friday's range, QQQ loses 0.70% and stays on sell on the daily chart
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, closed 0.06% lower on trading 58% below its twenty-session average, on a day when the US government bond market was shut: the whole session sits inside Friday's range, half a point from the all-time high. Both horizons are on buy: the daily level is 0.68% below the price, the weekly one 1.88%. QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 0.70%, closed in the lower part of the day's range and fell below the wait zone of the latest analysis. The daily signal has been on sell since Thursday, with its level 1.45% above the price; the weekly one remains on buy with a margin of 2.38%.
On targets the two are at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, which sits far above the entry price. QQQ is in its ninth week with two windows still ahead, and has never closed beyond the threshold that, under our rule, arms the break-even stop.
The big picture: rotation inside a flat index
The week opens with an index half a point from its record and a market that moves money without letting it leave. On Monday an announcement that came without numbers took between 4% and 6% off memory stocks, and on the same day the Dow Jones set a new high according to press reports, driven by energy and consumer staples. The backdrop is that of recent weeks: crude above 100 dollars according to press reports, a US central bank talking about broad-based inflation on the eve of the September figure, and an earnings season that starts today with the banks. In Europe a rally led by the banks turned the short-term signal back to buy on three indices out of four, without touching the weekly ones. Our model enters the week with 14 new buy signals, off to an orderly start, and with its sells on the most volatile stocks in the market, which on Monday extended their gains.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).