ETF and stock technical analysis: Saipem stock falls 4.69% in Milan, the gold ETF gains 1.79%, Dell stock drops 6.80% and ServiceNow stock jumps 6.14%
On Thursday 15 October the index said little and the baskets said a lot. According to market reports, US producer prices rose 6.3% year on year, the highest reading since December 2022, and yet the 10-year yield fell 11.5 basis points: the flight out of technology outweighed inflation. The S&P 500 ETF SPY closed up 0.28% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ down 0.13%, after recovering an opening drop of almost one and a half points. Money flowed into the gold ETF GLD, up 1.79%, the health care ETF XLV, up 1.86%, and the consumer discretionary ETF XLY, up 1.71%; at the bottom were the energy ETF XLE, down 1.58%, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX, down 0.91%. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB lost 0.55%, as Milan was Europe's weakest market.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. On the Milan market, Saipem stock fell 4.69% and STMicroelectronics stock 3.82% with chips, while ENAV stock rose 2.97% and Leonardo stock 1.87%. On Wall Street the rotation ran inside artificial intelligence: Dell stock dropped 6.80% after a Barclays downgrade and Arista stock 5.04%, while ServiceNow stock jumped 6.14% and Intuit stock 6.36%. FMC stock lost 30.53% on a cut to its outlook. In Frankfurt Infineon gave up 5.20%, in Paris Capgemini gained 3.47%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names. It had been short FMC since 14 September, and the short is now 44.30% ahead; on data-center hardware the shorts on Vertiv and Western Digital are 31.98% and 33.87% ahead, and in Europe the one on Infineon 17.58%. On the other side it was long the software that drew the money: ServiceNow is 18.97% up, Accenture 35.56%, SAP 27.63%, Capgemini 19.12%; in health care the ETF XLV is 18.55% up and Moderna 62.96%. In Milan the short on Stellantis is 34.18% ahead, the one on Prysmian 18.70%, and on the MIB basket the sell signal is 5.14% ahead.
- ETF technical analysis: gold, health care, technology, semiconductors, energy, the broad-index funds
- Artificial intelligence: Dell, Arista, Nvidia against ServiceNow, Intuit, Salesforce
- Health care, consumer and financials: Eli Lilly, Moderna, Home Depot, Visa, FMC
- High-volatility stocks: Opendoor, Recursion, IonQ, Rocket Lab
- Milan: Saipem, STMicroelectronics, Prysmian, ENAV, the banks
- Europe: Capgemini, Hermès, Rheinmetall, Infineon, Experian, Rio Tinto
- European indices: London above its level, Milan below
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
ETF technical analysis: the gold ETF and the health care ETF rise, the semiconductor ETF and the energy ETF fall, the broad-index ETFs close higher
An ETF is a fund listed on an exchange: one purchase buys a whole basket, a country's index, a sector or a commodity, and you can sell it whenever you like, just like a share. On Thursday the baskets showed clearly where the money went, even though the main index moved by only a few tenths.
Gold led. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, rose 1.79% and closed near its session high, with the metal at a new high for the period according to market reports. Our model has been short gold since 21 September, and the short is still 2.72% ahead: Thursday's rally narrowed the gap to the level that would end it. XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, gained 1.86%, the best in the grid, and the long opened on 26 May is 18.55% up. In Europe EXV4, the European health care ETF, rose 2.08% and the short is now flat. XLP, the consumer staples ETF, gained 0.72% but closed near its low: the weekly candle in progress is still turning to buy against the published sell.
Technology split. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, lost 0.65% but closed near its high after a much lower open; VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, and FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, lost a few tenths, and the three 10 August longs are back just below their entry. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, gave up 0.91% in the sector's seventh losing session, and its weekly candle in progress has turned to sell. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, stays 8.67% up; QDVE, the European version on S&P 500 technology, lost 2.90% and is 3.64% up. XLC, the communication services ETF, rose 1.46%.
Among the other US sectors, XLB on materials rose 1.79%, XLY on consumer discretionary 1.71%, XLF on financials 1.38% and XLRE on real estate 1.21%: on materials and discretionary our short is slightly behind, on the others it is still ahead. The US energy ETF XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, lost 1.58% despite higher oil, and the July long is 15.40% up; VDE, the Vanguard Energy, gave up 1.54%. In Europe health care led, while basic resources, EXV6, down 1.69%, technology, EXV3, down 1.68%, oil and gas, EXH1, down 1.62%, and banks, EXV1, down 1.45%, closed at the bottom; EXV2 on telecoms and EXHG on autos rose. Our ETF technical analysis page covers every basket we follow, one by one.
Broad-index ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the big baskets, the ones used in savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Thursday almost all of them closed a few tenths higher, and the difference between the families lies in the signals.
US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, gained 0.28% and is 13.59% up since the 6 April buy signal; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are 13.61% and 13.42% up. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, are slightly ahead. IWV and IWB, the two iShares funds on buy since 5 October, sit just below their entry. On the total market the model has been short since 14 September with VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, SCHB and SPTM, all within a point of the short's entry. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, rose 1.37% and closed near its high, and the short is 7.07% ahead.
Developed markets outside the US. With the dollar lower they recovered a little: VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, IXUS, SPDW and SCHF all closed higher and remain on sell, with shorts between 1% and 2% ahead. VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, rose 1.42% and the short is still 1.13% ahead, like IEFA and IDEV. VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, stays on buy, 9.19% up since 6 April, with a 0.28% margin above the weekly level.
Emerging markets and Japan. After the slide in Asian chip stocks in the morning, VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, IEMG, SCHE and SPEM closed slightly lower, and on all four the weekly candle in progress has turned to sell against the published buys: tonight decides. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, lost 0.45%.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, rose 0.86%, DGRO 0.82% and USMV 0.94%. The published signal has been on sell since 8 September, and on all three the candle in progress is still turning to buy: if the week closes like this tonight, the three signals flip.
Semiconductor stocks and hardware: Dell -6.80%, Arista -5.04%, Applied Materials -3.72%, Nvidia stock -1.84%; ServiceNow +6.14%, Intuit +6.36%, Salesforce +4.57%
The day started in Asia, where according to market reports Korean chipmakers lost between 9% and 11% on worries about how data centers are being financed. On Wall Street the turning point was Barclays, which cut Dell and HPE to neutral over the cost and return of artificial intelligence spending. DellLong fell 6.80%, and hardware went with it: Arista NetworksLong down 5.04%, VertivShort 3.63%, Applied MaterialsLong 3.72%, CiscoLong 3.34%, IntelLong 2.80%, Western DigitalShort 2.10%, Super MicroLong 1.93% and NvidiaLong 1.84%, the index's main drag. TSMCLong lost 1.80% on results day: record profit, but a lower gross margin. Vertiv, Western Digital, Super Micro and TSMC all closed near their session highs, though, after much lower lows. For holders of semiconductor stocks the day was about the gap between the open and the close, and Dell stocks and ServiceNow stocks ended almost thirteen points apart.
The money that left hardware went into software, the companies that sell artificial intelligence without having to build it. ServiceNowLong jumped 6.14%, IntuitShort 6.36%, AutodeskShort 6.07%, SalesforceShort and AdobeShort 4.57%, AccentureLong 4.63%, OracleLong 3.00%, IBMLong 2.74%. The emblematic case was CoreWeaveShort: down 9.5% at the open, it closed up 5.94% at its session high after Nvidia's chief said the new cloud providers do not need a financial backstop. NebiusLong took the same path, from down 12% to up 1.29%.
Eli Lilly stock +3.55%, Moderna +4.51%, Home Depot stock +4.31%, Nike +5.21%, Visa +2.13%; FMC stock -30.53% on an outlook cut
Health care was the best sector. ModernaLong rose 4.51%, Eli LillyShort 3.55%, described in market reports as the destination of the rotation out of technology, DanaherLong 3.03%, UnitedHealthShort 2.79%, GileadLong 2.49%, RegeneronShort 2.31%, Bristol-MyersShort 2.18%, VertexShort 2.06% and AmgenShort 1.86%; only MerckLong fell, down 1.48% and closing near its low.
Lower yields revived housing and consumer names: Home DepotShort up 4.31%, NikeShort 5.21%, ExpediaShort 6.25%, eBayShort 5.16%, AirbnbShort 4.32%, StarbucksShort 3.89% and BookingShort 3.19%. WalmartShort gained 1.47% on an upgrade to buy from Deutsche Bank. Among financials VisaShort closed at a record, up 2.13%, MastercardShort 2.17%, BlackRockShort 4.38% on its results and Interactive BrokersShort 2.25% after reporting; Charles SchwabShort lost 2.73% despite solid numbers. The odd one out was FMCShort: it cut its quarterly revenue outlook on weak demand and channel destocking, fell as much as 43% before the open and closed down 30.53%, on almost 10 times its normal volume and near its session high.
Opendoor stock +16.58%, Recursion +11.23%, IonQ +9.33%, Roblox +7.55%; Rocket Lab stock -6.64% on a rocket delay
The names hit hardest in the previous sessions bounced violently. OpendoorShort jumped 16.58% after dropping below 2 dollars for the first time in a year, RecursionLong 11.23%, The Trade DeskShort 7.80% from its 52-week low, RobloxLong 7.55%, RedditShort 7.24%, FigmaShort 7.03%, DuolingoLong 6.58%, AppLovinShort 6.52%, SoFiShort 6.12%, Hims & HersShort 5.99%, SnapLong 5.57% and UnityLong 4.69%. In quantum computing IonQLong gained 9.33% and RigettiShort 8.13%, despite price targets cut after the 2 billion share sale; in nuclear Uranium EnergyShort 6.10%, NuScaleShort 5.49%, CamecoShort 2.16%. In crypto, with bitcoin back up after slipping below 80,000 dollars, CircleLong rose 9.33%, TeraWulfShort 9.36%, CoinbaseLong 6.32%, StrategyLong 5.62%. The exception was Rocket LabShort, down 6.64% after delaying the debut of its new rocket: real news.
Chinese stocks listed in New York recovered too: JD.comShort up 2.66% on double-digit growth in first-day Double 11 orders, NIOShort 2.64%, XPengShort 2.23%, BaiduShort 0.86%.
Milan stocks: Saipem stock -4.69%, STMicroelectronics stock -3.82%, Prysmian -2.96%, banks lower; ENAV +2.97% and Leonardo +1.87%
Milan was Europe's weakest market: according to market reports the FTSE MIB closed down 0.72% at 49,397 points, weighed down by semiconductors and Saipem. The listing's biggest move was Technoprobe, down 10.3%, which our model does not follow; STMicroelectronics stockLong lost 3.82% in Milan, more than its New York line, though it closed near its session high. Saipem stockLong fell 4.69% and closed near its low: market reports read it as profit-taking after the run from the year's lows, on the day the chief executive said he was confident of antitrust clearance for the merger with Subsea7. PrysmianShort gave up 2.96% on the data-center cable theme, and TenarisLong 1.80%.
Banks followed their European peers, the weakest on the continent: Banco BPMShort down 2.67%, UniCreditShort 2.14%, BPERShort 1.29%, Intesa SanpaoloShort 1.04%, MediobancaShort 1.13%, Monte dei PaschiShort 0.95%, UnipolShort 0.95%; in asset management AzimutShort 2.72% and Banca MediolanumShort 0.57%. FincantieriShort, INWITLong, DiaSorinLong and A2ALong also fell. At the top ENAV stockShort rose 2.97%, followed by Telecom ItaliaShort, up 1.92%, LeonardoShort, 1.87% with European defence, SnamShort, 1.33%, FerrariShort, 1.29%, StellantisShort, 1.04%, CampariLong, 1.03%, and TernaShort. Brunello CucinelliShort, up 0.63%, raised its 2026 guidance after nine-month revenue. Saipem stocks had climbed from the year's lows to the highs of the period before Thursday, which is why profit-taking hit them harder than the rest of the list.
Capgemini stock +3.47%, Hermès +3.32% and L'Oréal +3.21% in Paris; Rheinmetall +5.05% and Infineon stock -5.20% in Frankfurt; Experian +5.90% and Rio Tinto -2.12% in London
In Paris the CAC 40 was Europe's best index according to market reports, despite the pullback in artificial intelligence names. CapgeminiLong gained 3.47% and Dassault SystèmesShort 2.98%, in the same software move that drove the US; HermèsShort rose 3.32%, L'OréalLong 3.21% and LVMHShort 2.25%, all closing at their session highs, with AirbusShort up 2.40% and KeringShort 1.27%. On the other side Schneider ElectricShort fell 2.42% and LegrandLong 1.22%, hurt by their data-center exposure.
In Frankfurt the DAX closed slightly higher: RheinmetallShort was the best, up 5.05%, InfineonShort the worst, down 5.20% with Asian chips; Siemens EnergyShort lost 2.16%, SiemensShort 1.60%, Deutsche BankShort 1.56%, while Munich ReLong rose 2.14% and SAPLong 2.19%. In London defensives offset the miners: ExperianShort led the index, up 5.90%, followed by CompassShort, 4.40%, RELXShort, 4.00%, London Stock ExchangeShort, 3.41%, AstraZenecaShort, 3.24%, GSKShort, 2.89%, and British American TobaccoShort, 2.49%. Rio TintoShort was the weakest, down 2.12% after its quarterly output and a price-target cut; TescoLong rose 1.56%.
European indices: the FTSE 100 ETF +1.03%, the CAC 40 ETF +0.70%, the DAX ETF +0.33%, the FTSE MIB ETF -0.55%
On Thursday three European indices out of four rose. The FTSE 100Short ETF gained 1.03%, the CAC 40Short ETF 0.70% and the DAXShort ETF 0.33%, all with the daily signal on buy; the FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 0.55% and is on sell on both horizons, after touching the same low as on 8 October during the session.
On the weekly chart the UK basket closed 0.63% above the level that would end its sell signal; Paris is 1.25% below, Frankfurt 1.87%, Milan 4.00%. The model's short is 5.37% ahead on the French basket, on sell since 24 August, and 5.14% on the Italian one, since 31 August; on the German and UK baskets it sits just below the entry.
This week's new buy signals: Saipem drops below its entry, five daily signals turn to sell, Ambev back on buy
The weekend analysis published 14 new buy signals, confirmed by the close on Friday 9 October: Credo TechnologyLong, Constellation EnergyLong, Royal CaribbeanLong, ShopifyLong, CiscoLong, Quanta ServicesLong, the two total US market ETFs IWBLong and IWVLong, in Milan AmplifonLong and SaipemLong, and four Brazilian stocks, GafisaLong, QualicorpLong, AmbevLong and Lojas RennerLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this section only reports what changes. On Thursday there were six changes: Saipem slipped below its entry, the daily signal turned to sell on Saipem, Cisco, Amplifon, Constellation and Qualicorp, and turned back to buy on Ambev.
This week's earnings: Netflix, GE and RTX on Tuesday 20, Meta, Tesla, SAP and IBM on Wednesday 21, Procter & Gamble, Lockheed Martin and Nebius on Thursday 22
35 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today IridiumShort. On Tuesday 20 come NetflixShort, which has just announced its largest layoffs in four years, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, HalliburtonShort, United AirlinesShort and Deutsche BörseLong; on Wednesday 21 MetaLong, TeslaLong, SAPLong, IBMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, AbbottShort and DanaherLong; on Thursday 22 Procter & GambleLong, Lockheed MartinShort, GileadLong, NebiusLong, BarclaysShort, NokiaLong and Western DigitalShort.
Friday 16 October
Iridium Communications Short
Tuesday 20 October
Netflix Short
GE Aerospace Short
RTX Short
Northrop Grumman Short
Intuitive Surgical Long
Halliburton Short
United Airlines Short
Deutsche Boerse Long
Wednesday 21 October
Meta Platforms Long
Tesla Long
SAP Long
IBM Long
Texas Instruments Long
Abbott Laboratories Short
Danaher Long
CME Short
Kinder Morgan Short
AT&T Short
CSX Short
QuantumScape Short
Thursday 22 October
Procter & Gamble Long
Lockheed Martin Short
Gilead Sciences Long
Nebius Long
Barclays Short
Nokia Long
Western Digital Short
Honeywell International Short
Valero Energy Long
Newmont Short
Spotify Technology Short
Bloom Energy Long
PG&E Short
Banco Bradesco Long
This week's economic calendar: Chinese GDP on Monday, UK jobs and German sentiment on Tuesday, UK inflation on Wednesday
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. This morning the Fed chair spoke for the last time before the end-of-month meeting: the quiet period starts on Saturday. In the US the week brings no top-tier data, and the spotlight moves to China and Europe.
Monday 19 October
04:00 · China · Third-quarter GDP, September industrial output and retail sales: Chinese demand, which weighs on European luxury, metals and chip stocks medium impact
Tuesday 20 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · Labour market: the unemployment rate, the first of the week's two UK releases medium impact
11:00 · Germany · October ZEW analyst sentiment: the month's first survey on the German economy medium impact
Wednesday 21 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · September inflation: the last price figure before the Bank of England on 5 November medium impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 28 October · 19:00 · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Thursday 29 October · 14:15 · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY gains 0.28% after a lower open, QQQ loses 0.13% and closes above its weekly level after losing it intraday
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, opened 0.43% lower and closed up 0.28%, near its session high, on 43.3 million shares against an average of 38.2: it is 1.26% below its all-time high. The daily signal has been on sell since Wednesday, with its level 0.78% above the price; the weekly one stays on buy with a 1.64% margin. QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, opened 1.43% lower, dipped intraday below the level that judges its weekly trade and closed down 0.13%, near its session high, on 49.8 million shares against 37.5: it is 4.57% below its record. The daily signal has been on sell since 8 October, and the weekly one holds with a 0.45% margin.
On targets the two are in opposite phases. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, far above its entry price. QQQ is in its ninth week, has taken the first window and has two ahead, but sits just below its entry.
The big picture: a rotation inside the index
On Thursday the US index moved by a few tenths, and a great deal happened underneath. Money left artificial intelligence hardware, hit by the Barclays call on Dell and HPE and by the slide in Asian chips, and went into the software that sells the technology, into health care, housing and consumer names, helped by lower yields. Gold rose, the dollar fell, and Treasury volatility climbed again while equity volatility eased. In Europe Paris and London closed higher with luxury, software and defensives; Milan, heavy in banks, industrials and semiconductors, was the weakest. Our model heads into the weekly close with its shorts on hardware and on the speculative tail well ahead, its longs on software and health care rewarded, and many candles in formation changing sides.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).