ETF and stock technical analysis: Telecom Italia stock gains 2.99% in Milan, the energy ETF rises 1.80%, the health care ETF falls 1.35%, JPMorgan stock slips 0.86% and Applied Materials stock drops 6.69%
On Tuesday 13 October the US index stood still while money moved from one sector to another underneath it, and ETFs make that visible. The S&P 500 ETF SPY closed 0.01% lower, half a point from its all-time high, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ lost 0.33% after a weak open driven by selling in Asia on stocks tied to artificial intelligence. The energy ETF XLE rose 1.80% with the refiners, while the health care ETF XLV fell 1.35% and the US financials ETF XLF 0.42% on the day the big banks reported. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB closed almost flat: the Milan market held up better than Wall Street. The gold ETF GLD barely moved, down 0.13%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan, Telecom Italia stock gained 2.99%, A2A stock 1.55% and UniCredit stock 0.98%, while STMicroelectronics stock lost 3.85% and Prysmian stock 2.20%. On Wall Street JPMorgan stock slipped 0.86% after its first earnings miss in almost three years, Citigroup stock fell 5.60%, Johnson & Johnson stock 5.73% and Applied Materials stock 6.69%, while Valero stock climbed 4.69%, Oracle stock 4.23% and Meta stock 2.63%. In London London Stock Exchange stock lost 4.68%, and in Paris Capgemini stock rose 3.42%.
Our model was on the right side of the day's two sharpest moves. It has been long the refiners for months: Valero, since 5 January, is 146.36% in profit, Marathon Petroleum 94.79%, the XLE ETF 16.50% and BP 15.82%. It went into the US bank results on sell: Goldman Sachs is 14.12% ahead, Charles Schwab 8.85%, Citigroup 3.73% and JPMorgan 3.39%, and the short on Johnson & Johnson, opened on 5 October, is already 4.91% ahead. On the most speculative tail of the market the sells extended: Cipher 43.41%, AST SpaceMobile 42.89%. In Milan the short on Stellantis is 33.33% ahead and the long on Eni 11.80%. The model remains on sell on the four European index ETFs and on buy on SPY and QQQ.
- ETF technical analysis: energy, health care, financials, semiconductors, gold, the broad index funds
- Semiconductor and big tech stocks: Applied Materials, Micron, Nvidia, Oracle, Meta
- Banks, health care and energy: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, Valero
- High-volatility stocks: Cipher, AST SpaceMobile, Uranium Energy
- Milan market: Telecom Italia, A2A, UniCredit, STMicroelectronics, Prysmian
- Europe: London Stock Exchange, Rio Tinto, Capgemini, BMW
- European indices: four flat baskets
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the energy ETF rises, the health care and financials ETFs fall, the semiconductor ETF recovers during the session, the gold ETF stays flat
An ETF is a fund listed on an exchange that tracks an index: one purchase gives you a slice of hundreds of companies, of a sector or of a commodity, and it trades like a single stock. On Tuesday the sector baskets said more than the index, which closed unchanged while energy gained almost two points and health care lost one and a half.
The money went to energy, and within energy to refining. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, rose 1.80%, closing near the day's high, and the model's long opened on 13 July is 16.50% in profit. VDE, the Vanguard Energy ETF, the Vanguard energy ETF, added 1.83%: here the published signal is still sell and the current weekly candle is turning to buy. In Europe EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS ETF, the European oil and gas ETF, gained 0.89%, closing at its high, with a long 9.27% ahead.
The money left health care and financials. XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, lost 1.35%, closing near its low on the day Johnson & Johnson was punished despite raising its guidance; the long from 26 May remains 13.51% ahead. EXV4, the European health care ETF, gave up 0.56%, and here the model is short and 4.13% ahead. XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, lost 0.42% with the bank results, and the short is 1.86% in profit; in Europe EXV1, the European banks ETF, rose 0.39% and turned its daily signal back to buy, while the weekly short stays 0.52% ahead.
Technology had a two-part session. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the semiconductor ETF, opened lower after the selling in Asia and climbed back to close 0.17% down, near the day's high; the long from 21 September is 5.03% below entry. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, closed 0.04% lower at its high, VGT, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF, the Vanguard technology ETF, 0.02% lower and FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology ETF, 0.04% lower: all three have been on buy since 10 August and remain more than three points in profit. MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, the Magnificent Seven ETF, rose 0.43% and is 11.04% ahead; QDVE, the European version on S&P 500 technology, lost 0.79% and remains 7.00% ahead. EXV3, the European technology ETF, fell 1.67%.
Among the other US sectors, XLC, the communication services ETF, rose 0.74% with Meta and turned its daily signal back to buy, XLU, the utilities ETF, gained 0.58%, closing near its high, and XLB, the materials ETF, 0.57%; XLP, the consumer staples ETF, fell 0.26%, XLI on industrials 0.28% and XLRE on real estate 0.21%; XLY on consumer discretionary was flat. In Europe autos rose with EXHG, up 0.97% at the day's high, and utilities with EXH9, up 0.50%; basic resources fell with EXV6, down 1.15%, and industrials with EXH4, down 0.59%. EXV2, the European telecoms ETF, added 0.21%. GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares, the world's most heavily traded gold ETF, closed 0.13% lower: the weekly short from 21 September is 2.98% ahead. Our global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad index ETFs, family by family. Alongside the sectors our model follows more than thirty funds on the big indices, the ones used in savings plans and long-term portfolios. In a flat session margins matter more than daily moves.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, the world's most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF, closed 0.01% lower and is 14.50% ahead of the buy signal of 6 April; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF, are 14.49% and 14.39% in profit. OEF, the iShares S&P 100 ETF, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF, are 1.46% and 2.34% ahead. IWV, the iShares Russell 3000 ETF, and IWB, the iShares Russell 1000 ETF, the two total-market funds that returned to buy on Friday, are still just below entry. On the other four, VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, the Vanguard ETF on the whole US market, ITOT, the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF, SCHB, the Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF, and SPTM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 ETF, the published signal is sell and the current candle is turning towards buy: Friday decides. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the small-cap ETF, lost 0.43%, and the model's short is 6.52% in profit.
Developed markets outside the US. With the dollar lower almost all of them edged up: VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, 0.16%, VEU, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF, 0.15%, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF, 0.12%, IXUS, the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF, 0.10%, SPDW, the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF, 0.18%, and SCHF, the Schwab International Equity ETF, 0.04%. The model is on sell on all six, with shorts between a third of a point and a point and a half ahead. On sell since 14 September are VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF, the Vanguard Europe ETF, which added 0.57% and turned its daily signal to buy, with the short 2.15% ahead, IEFA, the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF, 1.38% ahead, and IDEV, the iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF, 1.34% ahead. On buy remains VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, the global equity ETF, 10.19% ahead since 6 April and closing near its high.
Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF, closed almost unchanged and remain in profit, 0.84% and 1.95% ahead; SPEM, the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF, and IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, are just below entry after the heavy session in Korea. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF, the Japan ETF, closed flat, just below entry.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF, Vanguard's dividend ETF, lost 0.14%, DGRO, the iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF, 0.27%, and USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF, 0.08%. The published signal has been sell since 8 September, and on all three the current candle is still turning towards buy, after two sessions.
Semiconductor stocks split: Applied Materials stock down 6.69% and Micron stock down 3.62% after the Broadcom CEO's remarks; Nvidia and AMD stock higher, Oracle stock up 4.23%, Meta stock up 2.63%
The blow came from Asia. According to press reports, Broadcom's chief executive said in Singapore that many investors in artificial intelligence have no idea what they are buying and behave as if they were in a casino; added to the server memory announced on Monday by the Chinese maker CXMT, the remark took the Korean index down more than 5% and the Japanese one 2.34%. On Wall Street the damage was concentrated on the makers of equipment and components for data centres: Applied Materials stockLong lost 6.69% after an investor day at which the company declined to give an estimate of industry spending, Micron stockLong 3.62%, Arista NetworksLong 3.02% and Super MicroLong 2.28%. Micron and Arista, however, closed near the day's high after much lower lows.
The sellers of finished chips went up. Nvidia stockLong gained 0.97%, AMD stockLong 1.90%, Texas InstrumentsLong 2.17%, IntelLong 1.44%, MarvellLong 1.08% and BroadcomShort itself 0.73%, all closing near the day's high; TSMCLong added 0.17% two days before its results. SandiskLong lost 0.34% and Western DigitalShort 1.61%. Among the largest companies Oracle stockLong rose 4.23%, the best of the software names, on a power agreement for its artificial intelligence campus and a chip leasing contract with Tencent, and Meta stockLong 2.63% in the second session after the launch of its Muse Wonder models. The others were calmer: MicrosoftLong up 0.43%, AppleLong up 0.09% after a new 52-week high during the session, AlphabetShort up 0.30%; AmazonShort down 0.37%, NetflixShort down 0.21% and TeslaLong down 0.74%. In software Palo Alto NetworksLong lost 1.68%, ShopifyLong 1.51%, DatadogLong 1.37%, AdobeShort 0.78% after a downgrade; ZscalerLong rose 1.28%.
JPMorgan stock down 0.86% and Citigroup stock down 5.60% on earnings, bank stocks under pressure, Johnson & Johnson stock down 5.73% despite raised guidance; Valero stock up 4.69% and Marathon Petroleum up 3.96%
Earnings season opened with four big banks and a shared message: high rates and sticky inflation will end up weighing on consumers. JPMorganShort reported earnings of 5.57 dollars a share against 5.93 expected, its first miss in almost three years according to press reports, and closed 0.86% lower near its low. CitigroupShort lost 5.60% at the day's low, with net interest income above expectations but lower credit card profits, and its daily signal turned to sell. Wells FargoShort gave up 3.10% on higher provisions. Goldman SachsShort beat expectations, with equities revenue up 72% on the year, and still closed 0.23% lower. Elsewhere in the sector BlackRockShort lost 1.64% and Charles SchwabShort 1.15% ahead of its own results; today it is the turn of Bank of AmericaShort, which fell 1.14% on Tuesday.
Health care was the worst sector. Johnson & JohnsonShort lost 5.73% on a day when it had beaten estimates and raised its full-year guidance: the market looked at medical devices, which grew far less than pharmaceuticals, at oncology below expectations and at the one-off charge for the talc litigation. The fall spread across the sector: VertexShort down 4.30% at its low, AbbVieLong down 2.40%, MerckLong down 2.39%, GileadLong down 1.67%, Bristol-Myers SquibbShort down 1.58%, Eli LillyShort down 1.36% and Intuitive SurgicalLong down 1.30%. Among smaller names KyvernaShort lost 7.09%, RecursionLong 4.36%, Hims & HersShort 3.04%, CRISPR TherapeuticsLong 2.81%. AbbottShort rose 0.78%.
The money went to energy, above all to refining, where margins remain historically wide according to press reports. Valero stockLong rose 4.69% and Marathon PetroleumLong 3.96%, both at the day's high and Marathon at a new all-time high. BPLong gained 3.85% on an update showing debt cut ahead of plan. ConocoPhillipsShort added 2.43%, ChevronLong 1.27%, ExxonLong 1.12% and Kinder MorganShort 1.06%. Among industrials CaterpillarShort lost 3.33% after two price-target cuts, RTXShort 1.95%, BoeingShort 1.59% and Lockheed MartinShort 1.54%.
Cipher stock down 12.77%, AST SpaceMobile down 8.54% after a downgrade, Uranium Energy down 6.68%, USA Rare Earth at its lows: the most speculative themes fall
The rotation hurt most where value depends almost entirely on expectations. The widest fall in our universe was CipherShort, down 12.77%, with no confirmed news of its own. AST SpaceMobileShort lost 8.54% after a broker downgraded it, citing competition from SpaceX satellites that connect directly to phones; in its wake Intuitive MachinesShort fell 5.29% and Rocket LabShort 2.27%.
In critical materials Uranium EnergyShort lost 6.68% after a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, USA Rare EarthShort 4.57% as it hit a new 52-week low, Energy FuelsShort 4.04% and MP MaterialsShort 2.14%. Among crypto miners MARA HoldingsShort gave up 3.50%, CleanSparkShort 1.46% and TeraWulfShort 1.20%, while RiotShort rose 1.21%, CoinbaseLong 0.78% and RobinhoodLong 1.19%. In quantum computing IonQLong lost 4.25% and RigettiShort 3.55%; in nuclear NuScaleShort 3.13%; in hydrogen FuelCell EnergyShort 5.35%.
Milan stock market: Telecom Italia stock up 2.99%, A2A stock up 1.55%, UniCredit and BPER stock higher, STMicroelectronics stock down 3.85%, Prysmian stock down 2.20%
The Milan stock market held up on a difficult day for Wall Street: according to press reports the FTSE MIB closed 0.04% higher, above 50,000, and the ETF that tracks it was almost unchanged. Telecom Italia stockShort was the best among the large caps, up 2.99% and already higher from the morning. A2A stockLong gained 1.55%, Banca MediolanumShort 1.22%, BPER stockShort 1.10% with its daily signal back on buy, Eni stockLong 1.04% at the day's high, Enel stockShort 1.00%, NexiShort 1.00% and UniCredit stockShort 0.98%.
Italian banks were not dragged down by the US results: Monte dei Paschi stockShort rose 0.45%, turning its daily signal back to buy, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 0.18% and Generali stockShort 0.26%; the press reports that a second proxy adviser has recommended voting against both offers at the Monte dei Paschi shareholder meeting on 29 October. Utilities also rose: TernaShort up 0.85% with its daily signal on buy, Snam stockShort up 0.49%, HeraShort up 0.40%. At the bottom STMicroelectronics stockLong lost 3.85%, the worst on the main index, on fears about artificial intelligence investment; Prysmian stockShort fell 2.20% on the same data-centre spending theme, AvioShort 2.40%, AzimutShort 1.71%, BuzziShort 1.48%, Banco BPM stockShort 1.45% at the day's low, Leonardo stockShort 1.40% and Stellantis stockShort 1.05%. For Unipol the price series is not yet comparable after the rights detachment of its capital increase, and we do not report its move.
London Stock Exchange stock down 4.68% on the Octus deal, Rio Tinto down 2.06%, Capgemini stock up 3.42% in Paris, BMW and adidas higher in Frankfurt, Siemens Energy down 2.53%
In London the news of the day was the confirmation that London Stock Exchange GroupShort is in talks to buy Octus, a credit data platform, for about 3.5 billion dollars: the stock lost 4.68%, the widest fall among the market's big names, and its daily signal turned to sell. The session was held back by the miners, with Rio TintoShort down 2.06% at the day's low and GlencoreShort down 0.58%, and by pharmaceuticals, with AstraZenecaShort down 1.08% and GSKShort down 1.02%. Rolls-RoyceShort lost 3.58% and BAE SystemsShort 1.20%. On the rise were DiageoShort, up 2.36%, Tesco stockLong, up 1.17%, ExperianShort, up 1.11%, National GridShort, up 1.20%, and ShellLong, up 0.77%. Among the banks LloydsShort and HSBCShort closed just above flat with their daily signals back on buy, while BarclaysShort gave up 0.35%.
Frankfurt closed flat with wide tails: BMWShort up 2.56% and adidasShort up 2.44%, both at the day's high, SAP stockLong up 1.45% a week before its results, Mercedes-BenzShort up 1.08%, VolkswagenShort up 0.67%, BayerShort up 0.73%; on the other side Siemens EnergyShort fell 2.53%, the worst, hit by the same doubt over data-centre spending, InfineonShort 2.13%, Deutsche BankShort 1.49%, E.ONShort 1.24% and RheinmetallShort 0.91%. In Paris Capgemini stockLong rose 3.42% with its share buyback under way, Dassault SystèmesShort 1.67%, L'OréalLong 1.07%, OrangeShort 1.06% and Société GénéraleShort 1.04%, the only large French bank in the green; luxury lost ground, with HermèsShort down 1.95%, KeringShort down 1.45% and LVMHShort almost flat, and SanofiShort, SafranShort and LegrandLong also fell.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF, the DAX ETF, the CAC 40 ETF and the FTSE 100 ETF close almost unchanged, the daily signal stays on buy in London, Frankfurt and Paris
On Tuesday the four European indices moved by a few cents: the FTSE MIB ETFShort closed 0.02% lower, the DAX ETFShort 0.11% lower and the FTSE 100Short ETF 0.04% lower, all three near the day's low; the CAC 40Short ETF added 0.03%. In the short term Monday's split remains: London, Frankfurt and Paris have the daily signal on buy, Milan is on sell on both horizons.
On the weekly chart the distance from the level that would close the sell is 1.13% for London, 2.40% for Frankfurt, 2.32% for Paris and 3.41% for Milan. The model's short is 6.57% ahead on the French basket, on sell since 24 August, and 3.98% on the Italian one, since 31 August; on the German and British baskets, both since 14 September, it is around break-even.
This week's new buy signals: Credo Technology loses its daily signal, the Brazilian stocks fall below entry as São Paulo reopens, Ambev rises
The weekend analysis published 14 new buy signals, confirmed by the close on Friday 9 October: Credo TechnologyLong, Constellation EnergyLong, Royal CaribbeanLong, ShopifyLong, CiscoLong, Quanta ServicesLong, the two total-market ETFs IWBLong and IWVLong, in Milan AmplifonLong and SaipemLong, and four Brazilian stocks, GafisaLong, QualicorpLong, AmbevLong and Lojas RennerLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this section reports only what changes. On Tuesday there were five changes: Credo Technology's daily signal turned to sell, and the four Brazilian stocks reopened, three below their entry price and one above.
This week's earnings: Bank of America and BlackRock today, TSMC and Charles Schwab on Thursday, Netflix on Tuesday 20, Meta, Tesla and SAP on Wednesday 21
25 companies in our universe report in the next seven days. Today Bank of AmericaShort and BlackRockShort, on the day of the September US inflation figure; on Thursday 15 TSMCLong, Charles SchwabShort, Interactive BrokersShort and IridiumShort. On Tuesday 20 come NetflixShort, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, HalliburtonShort and United AirlinesShort; Wednesday 21 is a full day, with MetaLong, TeslaLong, SAPLong, IBMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, AbbottShort and DanaherLong.
Wednesday 14 October
Bank of America Short
BlackRock Short
Thursday 15 October
TSMC Long
Charles Schwab Short
Interactive Brokers Short
Iridium Communications Short
Tuesday 20 October
Netflix Short
GE Aerospace Short
RTX Short
Northrop Grumman Short
Intuitive Surgical Long
Halliburton Short
United Airlines Short
Wednesday 21 October
Meta Platforms Long
Tesla Long
SAP Long
IBM Long
Texas Instruments Long
Abbott Laboratories Short
Danaher Long
CME Short
Kinder Morgan Short
AT&T Short
CSX Short
QuantumScape Short
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY closes 0.01% lower inside its congestion zone, QQQ loses 0.33% after recovering most of a weak open
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, closed 0.01% lower on trading 41% below its twenty-session average, on the eve of the inflation figure: it remains inside the congestion zone of the latest analysis, half a point from its all-time high. Both horizons are on buy: the daily level is 0.58% below the price, the weekly one 1.95%. QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, opened almost a point below Monday's close and recovered all session, closing 0.33% lower near the day's high. The daily signal has been on sell since Thursday, with its level 1.12% above the price; the weekly one remains on buy with a margin of 2.24%.
On targets the two remain at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, far above the entry price. QQQ is in its ninth week with two windows ahead, and has not yet closed beyond the threshold that, under our rule, arms the break-even stop.
The big picture: one remark, four banks and a flat index
On Tuesday the catalyst was neither a data release nor a central bank, but a remark made in Singapore about investors in artificial intelligence, which pushed Asia lower and split Wall Street between those who sell equipment for data centres and those who sell the finished chips. On the same day the big banks opened earnings season with figures below expectations, and health care paid for raised guidance that the market judged to be of poorer quality than expected. Energy collected the money that left, and the broad index closed where it had opened. In Europe the Milan market held up better than Wall Street thanks to banks and utilities, while London was held back by the miners and by the London Stock Exchange. Our model enters US inflation day with its sells on banks and on the speculative tail in profit, its buys on the refiners at their highs, and a tension in rates that the equity market has not yet priced.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).