ETF and stock technical analysis: Prysmian stock falls 5.51% in Milan, the health care ETF rises 2.53%, the technology ETF drops 2.98%, CoreWeave stock plunges 15.46% and Oracle stock slides 8.83%
On Wednesday 14 October US inflation for September came in at 3.7% against the 3.6% expected, and the session turned. According to market reports, futures lifted the odds of a rate hike at the Fed's 28 October meeting from 20% to 44-49%. ETFs show where the money went. The S&P 500 ETF SPY lost 1.08% and the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ 1.97%, while the health care ETF XLV gained 2.53% and the consumer staples ETF XLP 2.22%. At the bottom were the technology ETF XLK, down 2.98%, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX, down 4.50%. The gold ETF GLD fell 1.49% as the dollar firmed, and the FTSE MIB ETF MIB lost 0.66%: Milan was the only European market to close lower.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. On the Milan market, Prysmian stock fell 5.51% on the same day it announced an acquisition, while Avio stock rose 5.34% on a deal with Lockheed Martin and Campari stock 2.92%; Stellantis stock lost 2.29%. On Wall Street the blow came through credit: CoreWeave stock plunged 15.46% after the yield on its bonds touched 15%, Oracle stock slid 8.83% and Nebius stock 10.08%, while UnitedHealth stock gained 4.73% and Walmart stock 3.46%. In Frankfurt Siemens Energy dropped 5.44%, in London AstraZeneca rose 3.40%.
Our model was on the right side of the day's sharpest moves. It had been short CoreWeave since 14 September: CoreWeave is now 19.15% in profit, and the shorts on the computing and crypto names stretched further, Cipher 50.40%, TeraWulf 45.51%, D-Wave 40.12%. It was short the electrification chain, with Vertiv 29.42% ahead and Caterpillar 14.92%, and short Bank of America, 10.98% ahead after its results. On the other side it was long the sectors that drew the money: the XLV ETF is 16.38% ahead, AbbVie 30.20%, Merck 20.39%, Chevron 18.50%. In Milan the short on Prysmian rises to 16.22% and the one on Stellantis to 34.86%; on the Italian basket MIB the sell signal is 4.61% ahead.
- ETF technical analysis: health care, staples, technology, semiconductors, gold, the broad-index funds
- Negative-beta stocks: energy as the index's counterweight
- The data-center debt bill: CoreWeave, Oracle, Nebius, Vertiv
- Semiconductor stocks and software: Marvell, AMD, Nvidia, Dell, Unity
- Health care, staples and banks: UnitedHealth, Walmart, Bank of America
- High-volatility stocks: IonQ, D-Wave, AST SpaceMobile
- Milan: Prysmian, Avio, Campari, Stellantis, the banks
- Europe: AstraZeneca, GSK, Airbus, Siemens Energy
- European indices: three up, Milan down
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
ETF technical analysis: the health care ETF and the consumer staples ETF rise, the technology ETF and the semiconductor ETF fall, the gold ETF slips with the dollar
An ETF is a listed basket you buy with a single order: it holds dozens or hundreds of companies from an index, a sector or a region, and its price moves with them. On Wednesday the sector baskets showed an almost textbook rotation: technology gave up nearly three points, health care added two and a half.
Money went into defensives. XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, rose 2.53% and closed at its session high, and the model's long from 26 May is 16.38% ahead. XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, gained 2.22%: the published signal is a sell, and the weekly candle in progress is turning to buy. In Europe EXV4, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care, the European health care ETF, gained 2.22%, and the short is still 2.01% ahead.
Money left technology. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, lost 2.98% and closed near its low, VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, 2.87%, and FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, 2.89%: the three longs from 10 August are still a few tenths in profit. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, lost 4.50% in the sector's sixth straight down session and closed below its weekly level in progress. MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, fell 1.92% and is still 8.91% ahead; QDVE, the European fund on S&P 500 technology, is 6.73% ahead. XLC, the communication services ETF, lost 1.30% with Meta.
Among the other US sectors energy held up: XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, rose 0.64% and the July long is 17.25% ahead; VDE, the Vanguard Energy, gained 0.22%, with the candle in progress turning to buy. Lower were XLF, the financials ETF, down 0.55% after closing near its high, XLI on industrials, 0.97%, XLY on consumer discretionary, 0.77%, XLRE on real estate, 0.81%, XLU on utilities, 0.36%, and XLB on materials, 0.10%: on all of them the model is short and in profit. In Europe EXV2 on telecoms rose 0.38%, EXH9 on utilities 0.32% and EXH4 on industrials 0.21%; EXV6 on basic resources fell 1.25%, EXHG on autos 0.60%, EXV1 on banks 0.54% and EXH1 on oil and gas 0.12%. EXV3, the European technology ETF, stood still while its US counterpart lost almost 3%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, fell 1.49% with the stronger dollar and its daily signal turned to sell: the weekly short from 21 September is 4.43% ahead. The ETF technical analysis of every basket we follow, one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
The broad-index ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones used in savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Wednesday almost all of them lost between one and two points; the margins make the difference.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, lost 1.08% and is 13.27% ahead since the buy signal of 6 April, with its daily signal turning to sell on Wednesday; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are 13.28% and 13.04% ahead. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, are only just in profit, 0.41% and 1.04%. IWV and IWB, the two iShares funds on the whole market that turned to buy on 5 October, slipped below their entry. On the whole market the model has been short since 14 September with VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, SCHB and SPTM, all just below the short's entry. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, lost 1.93% and the short is 8.32% ahead.
Developed markets outside the US. With the dollar rising they all lost about 1%: VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, IXUS, SPDW and SCHF. The model is short all six, with shorts between 1.5% and 2.6% in profit. Also short since 14 September are VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, 2.52% ahead, IEFA 2.16% and IDEV 2.10%. VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, remains long and 8.75% ahead since 6 April, but closed just below its weekly level in progress.
Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, and IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, have the weekly candle in progress turned to sell against the published buys; SCHE is still slightly in profit and SPEM just below its entry. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, lost 1.43% on 4.4 times its normal volume.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, rose 0.11%, DGRO 0.48%, and USMV closed flat: on a day when the index lost 1% these funds did their job. The published signal has been a sell since 8 September, and on all three the candle in progress is turning to buy.
Negative-beta stocks: beneath the index energy acts as a counterweight, Exxon stock gains 1.68% and Chevron stock 1.98% while SPY loses 1.08%
Beta measures how much a stock moves with the market, session by session: at 1 it moves like the index, above 1 it amplifies, below zero it tends to move the other way. On our basket of 274 US stocks and ETFs, the share with a negative beta over the last three months stayed between 2% and 7.4% through 2024 and 2025; at the end of September it had climbed to 16.1%, and today it stands at 13.9%. Over a year, on weekly data, it is 10.9%, the highest reading in our series, which starts at the end of 2023.
The most negative names are almost all in energy: BPLong, ExxonLong, ConocoPhillipsShort, ChevronLong, OccidentalShort, the XLELong ETF and Marathon PetroleumLong; then pharma, with AbbVieLong and Eli LillyShort. Wednesday was the proof: while SPYLong lost 1.08%, Exxon stock rose 1.68%, Chevron 1.98%, Marathon 1.66%, AbbVie 3.32% and Eli Lilly 3.62%.
A negative beta does not mean a stock runs against the market over time. Exxon has done far better than the S&P 500 over a year, and it has risen over three months too. It means that day to day it moves in turns: over the last 63 sessions, when the index rose Exxon fell on 19 days out of 27, and when the index fell it rose on 29 days out of 36. Oil goes up when technology, a third of the index, goes down.
CoreWeave stock down 15.46%, Oracle stock down 8.83% and Nebius stock down 10.08% on the cost of debt; Vertiv, GE Vernova and Caterpillar fall with electrification
The epicentre of the session was a yield, not a data release. According to market reports a social media post showed CoreWeaveShort bonds yielding 15%, and the stock lost 15.46% on 4.7 times its normal volume, with no operational news. The contagion followed leverage: Oracle stockLong slid 8.83%, with debt pushed towards 167 billion by data-center spending and its rating cut to BBB-, one notch above junk; NebiusLong lost 10.08%, IRENLong 12.18%, and the miners that rent out computing capacity fell too, TeraWulfShort 12.64%, CipherShort 12.35%, MARAShort 9.66%, RiotShort 9.42% and CleanSparkShort 9.11%, all closing near their lows.
The data centers' power chain moved on the same axis, with Oregon's moratorium on new sites extended to July 2027 in the background: VertivShort 6.09%, GE VernovaShort 6.20%, EatonShort 4.54%, Quanta ServicesLong 4.12%, CaterpillarShort 3.08%. Among the giants Meta stockLong lost 3.27% on an estimate of 225 billion in 2027 capital spending, MicrosoftLong 1.80%, AmazonShort and AlphabetShort 1.74%; AppleLong was the only one higher, up 0.50%.
Semiconductor stocks: Marvell down 8.72%, ARM down 6.81%, AMD down 5.73%, Nvidia stock down 3.16%; Dell and Unity tumble, Snowflake and CrowdStrike slip
The Philadelphia semiconductor index closed lower for a sixth straight session, according to market reports. MarvellLong lost 8.72%, Astera LabsLong 7.72%, Super MicroLong 8.42%, ARMLong 6.81%, AMD stockLong 5.73%, SandiskLong 5.33%, IntelLong 4.56%, Micron stockLong 4.10%, Applied MaterialsLong 3.79%, TSMCLong 3.40% on the eve of its results, Nvidia stockLong 3.16% and BroadcomShort 3.10%. Memory names were weighed down by progress at China's CXMT. The one counter-example was ASML, which beat consensus and raised its sales outlook.
Elsewhere in tech DellLong lost 11.27% after a downgrade alongside HPE and NetApp, and UnityLong 11.22% despite a raised price target, both with the daily signal turning to sell. CredoLong gave up 9.62%, SnowflakeLong 6.34%, Palo Alto NetworksLong 5.54%, CrowdStrikeLong 4.56%, PalantirLong 3.69%, ZscalerLong 3.44% and ShopifyLong 2.28%; AdobeShort rose 1.86%.
UnitedHealth stock up 4.73%, Merck up 3.80%, Walmart stock up 3.46%; Bank of America stock down 4.76% after the Treasury fine
The other side of the tech sell-off was orderly. In health care UnitedHealthShort rose 4.73%, Bristol-MyersShort 4.61%, MerckLong 3.80%, GileadLong 3.80%, Eli LillyShort 3.62%, AbbVieLong 3.32% and Johnson & JohnsonShort 2.13%. In consumer names WalmartShort gained 3.46%, CostcoShort 2.87%, Procter & GambleLong 2.28%, BookingShort 2.01%, Coca-ColaShort 1.85% and PepsiCoShort 1.55%; in defense Lockheed MartinShort rose 3.61% on the day of its deal with Avio, Northrop GrummanShort 2.97%, RTXShort 1.89%. Almost all of them closed near their session highs.
Banks had a day of their own. Bank of AmericaShort lost 4.76% after a 1.2 billion Treasury fine over anti-money-laundering and sanctions breaches, with earnings and revenue just below consensus, yet it closed near its session high on 4 times its normal volume. CitigroupShort fell 1.81%, Goldman SachsShort 1.48%, Interactive BrokersShort 3.83% ahead of its results, SoFiShort 6.69%; JPMorganShort recovered 1.16%, Charles SchwabShort 0.90%, Wells FargoShort 0.20%. BlackRockShort reported earnings and inflows above expectations and rose as much as 3.7% intraday, closing 0.72% higher.
IonQ stock down 9.53% on a 2 billion share sale, D-Wave down 10.09%, AST SpaceMobile down 10.46%, Rocket Lab down 7.85%
The heaviest bill fell on companies that live on fresh equity. IonQLong lost 9.53% after selling 2 billion dollars of shares, a few days after buying a cybersecurity company with stock. The market extended the reasoning to the whole of quantum computing: D-WaveShort 10.09%, RigettiShort 8.61%. In space AST SpaceMobileShort fell 10.46%, Intuitive MachinesShort 9.52% and Rocket LabShort 7.85%. In crypto, with bitcoin back below 83,000 dollars, StrategyLong lost 5.87%, RobinhoodLong 8.54% and CoinbaseLong 4.90%; in digital advertising AppLovinShort gave up 3.71%.
Milan stocks: Prysmian stock down 5.51% on its acquisition day, Avio stock up 5.34%, Campari up 2.92%, Stellantis stock down 2.29%, banks lower
Milan was the only European market in the red: according to market reports the FTSE MIB closed 0.61% lower, below 50,000, while London, Paris and Frankfurt rose. The most telling case was Prysmian stockShort, which lost 5.51% and closed at its session low on the day it announced the acquisition of Xtera: the market sold the cables and data-center theme regardless of the news, as it did with Siemens Energy in Frankfurt. At the other extreme Avio stockShort rose 5.34% on its launcher agreement with Lockheed Martin, and defense followed with LeonardoShort, up 0.61%.
The defensive rotation showed here too: CampariLong gained 2.92%, ItalgasShort 2.24%, Brunello CucinelliShort 1.84%, MonclerShort 1.80%, A2ALong 1.15% and INWITLong 1.06%. Banks weighed all day: BPERShort 1.97%, Banco BPMShort 1.60%, Banca MediolanumShort 1.42%, Intesa SanpaoloShort 0.65%, UniCredit stockShort 0.29% and Monte dei PaschiShort 0.30%, on the day a second proxy adviser, Glass Lewis, recommended voting against both of its offers at the 29 October meeting. MediobancaShort rose 0.98% on talk of selling its stake in Generali. Also lower were StellantisShort, 2.29% on third-quarter shipments down 1%, AmplifonLong, 2.38%, NexiShort, 2.07%, STMicroelectronicsLong, 1.77%, and Telecom ItaliaShort, 1.54%. On Unipol the series is not yet comparable after the rights detachment, so we do not report its move.
AstraZeneca stock up 3.40% and GSK up 3.59% in London, Danone up 2.62% and Airbus up 1.99% in Paris, Siemens Energy stock down 5.44% in Frankfurt
In London the FTSE 100 closed 0.7% higher according to market reports, supported by the Bank of England's chief economist, who questioned market expectations of four rate hikes. Pharma led: GSKShort rose 3.59% and AstraZenecaShort 3.40%, both near their session highs. Also higher were TescoLong, 1.82%, DiageoShort, 1.58%, ShellLong, 1.19% on the sale of its Nigerian gas assets, and Rolls-RoyceShort, 1.17%; Rio TintoShort fell 1.06%, GlencoreShort 0.96% and BarclaysShort 0.97%.
In Paris the CAC 40 gained 0.58%: DanoneShort 2.62%, AirbusShort 1.99% on its aftermarket services outlook, L'OréalLong 1.82%, KeringShort 1.50% and LVMHShort 1.43%; CapgeminiLong lost 1.09% with tech. In Frankfurt the DAX closed slightly higher: Siemens EnergyShort lost 5.44% at its session low, the worst in the index, alongside the US power chain; VolkswagenShort fell 2.64%, InfineonShort 1.16%, Deutsche BankShort 0.87%; RheinmetallShort rose 3.14%, BayerShort 2.08% and BMWShort 0.70%. SAPLong closed almost flat a week before its results.
European indices: the FTSE 100 ETF rises 0.75%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.58%, the DAX ETF 0.22%, the FTSE MIB ETF loses 0.66% and closes at its low
On Wednesday the four European indices split. The ETF on the FTSE 100Short rose 0.75% near its session high, the one on the CAC 40Short 0.58%, and the one on the DAXShort 0.22% but near its low after giving back almost all its gains in the afternoon; the FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 0.66% and closed at its low. London, Frankfurt and Paris have the daily signal on buy, Milan is on sell on both timeframes.
On the weekly chart the distance from the level that would close the sell signal is 0.39% for London, 1.82% for Paris, 2.19% for Frankfurt and 3.72% for Milan. The model's short is 6.03% ahead on the French basket, on sell since 24 August, and 4.61% on the Italian one, since 31 August; on the German one it is at break-even, and on the British one, the closest to its level, it is just below the entry.
This week's new buy signals: Quanta Services, the two whole-market ETFs and Gafisa turn to sell on the daily chart, the weekly signals hold
The weekend analysis published 14 new buy signals, confirmed by the close of Friday 9 October: Credo TechnologyLong, Constellation EnergyLong, Royal CaribbeanLong, Shopify stockLong, CiscoLong, Quanta ServicesLong, the two ETFs on the whole US market IWBLong and IWVLong, in Milan AmplifonLong and SaipemLong, and four Brazilian stocks, GafisaLong, QualicorpLong, AmbevLong and Lojas RennerLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this card only reports what changes. On Wednesday there were four changes, all on the daily chart, which turned to sell: Quanta Services, the two whole-market funds and Gafisa.
This week's earnings: TSMC and Charles Schwab on Thursday, Netflix and GE on Tuesday 20, Meta, Tesla and SAP on Wednesday 21
24 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today TSMCLong, Charles SchwabShort, Interactive BrokersShort and IridiumShort. On Tuesday the 20th come NetflixShort, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, HalliburtonShort, United AirlinesShort and Deutsche BörseLong; Wednesday the 21st is a full day, with Meta stockLong, Tesla stockLong, SAPLong, IBMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, AbbottShort and DanaherLong.
Thursday 15 October
TSMC Long
Charles Schwab Short
Interactive Brokers Short
Iridium Communications Short
Tuesday 20 October
Netflix Short
GE Aerospace Short
RTX Short
Northrop Grumman Short
Intuitive Surgical Long
Halliburton Short
United Airlines Short
Deutsche Boerse Long
Wednesday 21 October
Meta Platforms Long
Tesla Long
SAP Long
IBM Long
Texas Instruments Long
Abbott Laboratories Short
Danaher Long
CME Short
Kinder Morgan Short
AT&T Short
CSX Short
QuantumScape Short
This week's economic calendar: US retail sales on Thursday, the Fed chair on Friday, China's GDP on Monday, German sentiment on Tuesday
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. After Wednesday's inflation figure, the week brings US retail sales and producer prices today, the Fed chair's last public appearance before the end-of-month meeting tomorrow morning, and then the first October surveys on Europe.
Thursday 15 October
14:30 · United States · September retail sales: household spending, the first figure after yesterday's inflation report high impact
14:30 · United States · September producer prices: inflation upstream, the day after the consumer figure medium impact
Friday 16 October
05:30 · United States · The Fed chair in a public conversation with the head of the IMF, in Bangkok: the last appearance before the quiet period ahead of the 27-28 October meeting high impact
Monday 19 October
04:00 · China · Third-quarter GDP, September industrial output and retail sales: Chinese demand, which weighs on European luxury, metals and chip stocks medium impact
Tuesday 20 October
11:00 · Germany · October ZEW analyst sentiment: the month's first survey on the German economy medium impact
Wednesday 21 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · September inflation: the last price figure before the Bank of England on 5 November medium impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 28 October · 19:00 · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Thursday 29 October · 14:15 · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY loses 1.08% and breaks below its congestion zone, QQQ loses 1.97% and falls below the trade's entry
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 1.08% on 55.7 million shares traded against an average of 42.5, and broke below the congestion zone of the latest analysis: it is 1.54% below its all-time high. The daily signal turned to sell on Wednesday, with its level now 1.15% above price; the weekly one stays on buy with a 1.30% margin. QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 1.97% and closed near its session low, on 52.4 million shares against 33.6: it is 4.45% below its record and closed below the trade's entry price. The daily signal has been on sell since 8 October, and the weekly one holds with a 0.58% margin.
On targets the two are in opposite phases. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, well above the entry price. QQQ is in its ninth week, has taken the first window and has two ahead, but it is back below its entry and the break-even stop was never armed.
The big picture: a data release, a bond yield and a rotation
On Wednesday the US inflation figure reopened the door to a rate hike at the end of October, and the market first sold whatever runs on debt: the companies building computing capacity for artificial intelligence, the power chain that feeds it, and the companies that fund themselves by selling new shares. Money moved into health care, consumer staples, defense and energy, and the Dow closed almost flat while the Nasdaq lost nearly two points. In Europe London and Paris rose on pharma and consumer goods, and Milan, light on those sectors and heavy on banks and industry, was the only market to fall. Our model enters this phase with its shorts on the speculative tail and on electrification well in profit, its longs on health care and energy rewarded, and the weekly signals on the US indices still on buy, with tighter margins.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).